By Cyril I. Obi
Co-ordinator of the research program Post-Conflict Transition, the State and Civil Society in Africa at the Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, Sweden.
On Saturday (14 April), Africas most populous country and leading oil exporter will hold elections to the 36 state houses of assembly and gubernatorial positions, to be followed on 21 April, by elections to the National Assembly and the Presidency.
The elections mark the first time in Nigerias rather tumultuous political history where one incumbent elected president will hand over power to another. Apart from this, it will also mark the first time that three elections have been held consecutively within a democratic dispensation since independence in 1960.
It is undoubtedly the most crucial elections since the end of the Nigerian civil war in 1970, as it would finally prove if the return to democracy in 1999 will be consolidated or subverted.
Nigeria has a history of hotly contested elections: 1959, 1964/65, 1979, 1983, 1993 (annulled at the Presidential stage), 1999 and 2003.
Three issues stand out in all the elections:
1) the high stakes and zero-sum contest between factions of the political elite for power involving the use of force and electoral malpractices,
2) the contradictions and crisis surrounding the politics of succession, and
3) the credibility of the electoral process as a non-violent broadly representative modality of addressing the critical challenges in Nigerias federalism and democracy.
The 2007 elections would prove to be the ultimate test of Nigerias democratic structures and processes and perhaps, the countrys nationhood. Also, as West Africas pivotal state and leading oil exporter, the outcome of the April elections would be critical to regional peace and global energy security.
In the run up to the elections the rising political tensions are fundamentally linked to the issue of whether the coming elections would be free and fair, reflecting the choice of Nigerian citizens in ways that will bring forth a truly representative and accountable government, which can effectively address the interests and welfare needs of the people.
There is some concern about the attempt of the incumbent President to influence the choice of an elected successor, the impartiality of the electoral body: Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission (INEC), and the willingness of the fractionalized Nigerian political class to play by the “rules of the game.”
These concerns have been exacerbated by the open disagreement between the President and the Vice President, the Presidents open support for his partys (Peoples Democratic Party) Presidential candidate, Umaru YarAdua, and inflammatory statements by some politicians on the April elections.
On top of this come pre-election violence in some parts of the country, the escalation of the crisis in the oil-rich, but impoverished Niger Delta and the reported attempts of the federal anti-corruption agency to exclude opposition candidates (including the Vice President) from contesting in the coming elections.
Although some opposition groups in Nigeria and sections of the international community expressed concern, it is clear that the elections will hold as originally scheduled, and again demonstrate the capacity of Nigerians to struggle for democracy.
Out of a crowd of about 50 political parties, the front-runners in the present race to the Presidential villa remain the candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Umaru YarAdua and two opposition parties: the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) represented by former military head of state and retired Army General Muhammadu Buhari, and the Action Congress (AC) represented by Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.
The latter can contest only if his disqualification by INEC as a presidential candidate in the April 21 election is over-turned by a verdict of the Nigerian Supreme Court early next week. In what promises to be a close call for Nigerias political future, a lot will depend on the Nigerian people to strive to preserve and extend the hard-won democratic gains of the past eight-years of post-military rule.
Further Reading
http://allafrica.com
Ibrahim, J. “Prospects for Credible Elections in Nigeria”, News from the Nordic Africa Institute no. 1, 2007.
http://www.nai.uu.se/publications/news/ibrahim/
Ibrahim, J. “Nigerias 2007 Elections: The Fitful Path to Democratic Citizenship”, Special Report 182, January 2007, United States Institute for Peace (USIP),
http://www.usip.org or the report directly
http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr182.html
Independent National Electoral Commission.
http://www.inecnigeria.org
Lubeck, P; M. Watts and R. Lipschutz, Convergent Interests: US Energy Security and the “Securing” of Nigerian Democracy”, International Policy Report, February 2007.
http://www.ciponline.org
Obi, C, Nigeria: Democracy on Trial, Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, 2005. Occasional Electronic Paper.
http://www.nai.uu.se/publications/books/book.xml?id=25114
For more information:
Cyril Obi, Tel: 0046 18 56 22 36, E-mail: [email protected]
