Redie Bereketeab er forsker på Nordiska Afrikainstitutet (NAI) i Uppsala i Sverige og han er ikke ligefrem optimist, når det gælder fremtiden for Sudan og Afrikas nye nation Sydsudan – begge blandt verdens fattigste lande trods olierigdomme.
Tension between the bordering states of Sudan and South Sudan has escalated into armed conflict over the past few weeks. The current conflict began when South Sudanese troops attacked the city of Heglig in Sudan and occupied it for 10 days before withdrawing.
“The attack does not make sense to me. South Sudan could anticipate retaliation (gengældelse) from Khartoum and, perhaps worse, losing the goodwill of friends in Europe and the US. Indeed, there was strong condemnation by the AU (Den Afrikanske Union), UN, EU and US, says Redie Bereketeab.
The 53-year old Eritrean (now a Swedish citizen) is a researcher at NAI with a special focus on the Horn of Africa.
Heglig is an oil-rich area, accounting for half of Khartoum’s total production thus the strong reaction from the government in Khartoum.
Much of the infrastructure has been destroyed in the fighting. It is still not clear whether the damage to the oil-facilities was caused by troops from Juba or by the retaliatory bombardment by Khartoum.
The UN and AU are pushing Khartoum to halt the bombardment, but Sudan is intent on retaliating for the invasion and on forcing Juba to stop supporting the rebel Sudan Revolutionary Front (an alliance of the SPLM-N and various Darfur rebel groups).
Bitterness in Khartoum
“In Khartoum people are bitter at the peace-agreement. They feel that they are giving and giving, yet South Sudan keeps making new demands. Also, if Khartoum had not agreed to an independent South Sudan, it would never have been internationally recognized, as in the cases of Somalialand and West Sahara”, says Bereketeab.
“An arbitrary declaration of independence by South Sudan would have been considered to be in breach of AU Charter for violating sacrosanct colonial borders. A unilateral independence would not have been accepted by the AU or, consequently, the UN. Many Sudanese thus feel a sense of betrayal (forræderi) by their brothers in the South Sudan and the international community”, he notes.
He believes that the next weeks, even months, will continue to be tense for Juba and Khartoum. In the long run, however, there is no alternative to negotiations, since the conflict is disastrous economically for both countries.
“Before the occupation of Heglig, South Sudan was perceived as occupying the moral high ground and could count on the unquestioning support of its important friends. The recent strong condemnation by its supporters, including the US, represents a huge diplomatic setback”, says Redie Bereketeab.
Seminars on Sudan
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