Af Cecilia Bäcklander
Afrikas nyeste nation er genstand for et drama af episke dimensioner, hvor en blodig konflikt, striden om råstoffer, afgrundsdyb mistillid og den gode jord, som bare ligger og venter, indgår som ingredienser.
When South Sudan became independent last year, the population had great expectations on the benefits of freedom. They are suffering from conflict, corruption, illiteracy (analfabetisme), and lack of roads, schools, clinics and jobs.
These are all enormous obstacles for forming a new society with its own institutions. But most of Sudan’s oil deposits accrued to (tilfaldt) South Sudan at partition, which can be used to finance state expenditures (udgifter).
The lasting armed conflict with Sudan has dominated the first year of independence. No oil has been produced since January. Now the two governments have reached agreement to restart production and exports.
In the short run, the oil stoppage has created turmoil. But perhaps this will make South Sudan recognize its vulnerability and seriously embark on diversification (satse på andet end olie)i, taking advantage of its vast fertile but idle (uopdyrkede) lands.
On 9 July 2011, South Sudan became the newest nation of the world after a well-managed referendum in which 98 per cent of the population voted for independence from Sudan.
The referendum had been stipulated in a peace agreement in 2005 between the government in Khartoum and the rebel movement SPLM (Sudan People´s Liberation Movement).
Independence is non-reversible. It was preceded by several decades of armed conflict between the ruling Arab Muslims in the North and the black ethnic groups with Christian or traditional religions in the South. In the middle of the fighting were the large oil deposits.
The blessing and curse (svøbe) of oil
Three quarters of the oil deposits are on South Sudan’s territory, but the refineries are in Sudan, and all the pipelines go there.
The countries did not agree on pricing and in January, South Sudan stopped all production and shipments. The oil was not pumped, nothing was delivered and no revenues (indtægter) received.
Since 98 per cent of South Sudan’s state revenues come from oil, this was equivalent to a financial meltdown (sammenbrud). Yet, this measure had the support of the population. It is seen as asserting the nation’s rights against the exploiters in the North.
Sudan also was hard hit by the oil stoppage. Price hikes and spending cuts set off protests against the régime. The lack of diversification with agricultural and industrial development became obvious also in Sudan.
A month ago, the two Presidents Salva Kiir of South Sudan and Omar al Bashir of Sudan swallowed their pride at the negotiations led by the African Union. Oil production and shipments are to be resumed successively during the last part of 2012.
There is an abysmal (afgrundsdyb) distrust between the two states, but they cannot manage without cooperation. At least not for a long time yet.
South Sudan has for some time been negotiating with Kenya about constructing a pipeline to the port of Lamu. Kenya has discovered oil in the region bordering South Sudan, whose dependence on Sudan perhaps could thus be broken.
Discussions are also under way about a pipeline to Djibouti via Ethiopia. But all this takes time; investors have to be found. Chinese companies hesitate, being deeply involved in the oil industry in both Sudan and South Sudan.
Also, oil is also a finite (ikke-uendelig) resource. There is speculation about how long the wells of South Sudan could last; 5-10 years with full capacity exploration and then declining until 2035 is the current estimate.
But perhaps there will be new findings. Diversification will be required anyway.
Land and power
Læs videre på
http://www.naiforum.org/2012/11/earth-blood-and-oil
Cecilia Bäcklander er svensk journalist og filmproducent
Artiklen optræder på NAI Forum – Nordic Africa Development Policy Forum.
Kilde: Seneste nyhedsbrev fra Nordiska Afrikainstitutet (NAI) i Uppsala torsdag.
