Kommentar af Mattias Söderberg, klimarådgiver i Folkekirkens Nødhjælp
På klimatopmødet i Lima i Peru forsøger verdens ledere at bane vejen for en fælles klimaaftale, der skal forhandles på plads i Paris næste år. Ordlyden af landenes individuelle forpligtelser og bidrag er afgørende for, hvordan de enkelte parter er villige til at handle.
Climate talks include confusingly many abbreviations. One of the most frequently used abbreviations right now at the climate summit, COP20, in Lima is “INDC”.
INDC stands for “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions”, and replace the term “commitments” which was previously used to describe what countries should do.
The word “contribution” is weaker than “commitment”. Many countries are not willing to “commit”, but want to “contribute”, which characterizes an offer rather than something that must be done.
Last year in Warsaw, at COP19, parties agreed to prepare their INDCs, so that they can be submitted in the first quarter of 2015 in advance of the Paris climate summit in December 2015.
By doing so, the proposed level of ambition is set already before the Paris meeting begins, and it will be easier to discuss frameworks, mechanisms, and possibilities for scaling up the ambition further.
One of the key tasks for COP20 in Lima is to define the concept and content of INDCs further. This is not an easy task.
Some parties want INDCs only to include mitigation, while others also wants to include other elements, such as finance and adaptation. Some parties want a mitigation baseline in 1990, others in 2005. Some parties want INDC’s to cover 5 years, while others want a period of 10 years.
Some parties forget the “I”, and end up just referring to “NDC”. And the difference between “INDC” and “NDC” is vital. The idea with INDCs is that parties should present contributions prior to the climate summit in Paris.
If we know the level of ambition before COP21, there is time to evaluate and revise the intended contributions. Such a revision should be related to both scientific recommendations and effort sharing between parties.
In theory, ambitions could be scaled up during 2015. In practice, many parties do not want to revise their contributions after submitting them. They don’t want them to be “intended”, but rather only “nationally determined”.
However, by neglecting “Intended”, and the possibility to scale up ambition during the year, the outcome of the climate summit in Paris, is likely to lack the ambition needed. As a result global temperature will be likely to rises above 2 degrees, which is identified by scientists as an important tipping point.
Thus the “I” in INDCs is vital.
