Af Jesper Søe, U-landsnyt.dk
Advarslerne står i kø og de røde lamper lyser – det gør håbet om et bedre Mozambique også – i et åbenhjertigt landepapir, som Danida nu har lagt frem om vor bistandsindsats i det store land i Sydøstafrika fra 2016 til 2020.
Papiret er lagt ud til offentlig drøftelse (høring) som et oplæg og alle interesserede aktører kan give deres besyv med.
Det sker, når Danida indkalder til møde fredag d. 27. februar kl. 13 til 15 i udenrigsministeriet, hvor vor ambassadør i Maputo, Mogens Pedersen, vil være med på video.
Se mere i vor kalender på
http://www.u-landsnyt.dk/kalender-indhold/hvilken-vej-mozambique-og-hvordan-med-vor-bistand
Papiret behandler indgående de former for bistand, Danmark gerne vil stille med de kommende år, men det er nok især beskrivelsen af “venstrefløjens yndlingsland” i Afrika anno 2015, der umiddelbart må påkalde sig interesse.
Det med venstrefløjen er ikke taget ud af den blå luft. Mozambique blev fra uafhængigheden for snart 40 år siden mål for en strøm af kooperanter og andre “udviklingsfolk”, hvoraf adskillige siden har slået sig ned i det fattige, men smukke land med den gæstfrie befolkning.
Eurofi hos de rige – de fattige står udenfor
Danskerne har kunnet opleve en sand lokal eufori de seneste år, fordi der er fundet enorme forekomster af kul, naturgas og mineraler. En eufori, som især de rige gennemlever. Her er alle klar til at skære så meget som muligt af guldkalven.
MEN: De fattige står stort set udenfor. Og de fattige er omkring halvdelen af de ca. 25 millioner indbyggere. Vi taler her om dyb fattigdom i ofte isolerede og tilbagestående landsdele, der ikke har set nogen nævneværdig fremgang.
Vi citerer fra landepapiret (der er på engelsk):
“The discovery of significant mineral resources in Mozambique has led to an understandable euphoria. Yet experience shows that there is no guarantee that income from mineral wealth will benefit the majority of a country’s population”.
Står ved en korsvej
“Mozambique is at a cross-road. Difficult decisions need to be taken. The foundations of an inclusive society (hvor alle oplever fremgang, red.) must be strengthened and put in place where they do not already exist.
Lifting the constraints that prevent the poor from raising their incomes through entrepreneurship and employment is one cornerstone.
Changing the logic and attitude that tend to exclude the opposition and their supporters from decision making, public positions and economic opportunities is another.
To secure prosperity and stability, these foundations have to be built now. Once revenue starts to arrive from the mineral industry in volume (formentlig fra 2022, red.), it may be too late”, lyder det advarende i landepapiret, som direkte taler om et “window of opportunity”.
Slappe donorer
Hvordan reagerer de udenlandske donorer af bistand så på det?
Ja, takket være langt bedre skatteopkrævning er bistandens andel af statsbudgettet allerede faldet fra 70 proccent til under det halve. Godt for Mozambique at kunne stå selv, men også færre donor-muskler.
Men vil Mozambiue det rigtige: Hvad når mineralindtægterne vælter ind? Her siger landepapiret:
“The country has gained access to the international capital markets and the scramble for position in relation to the exploitation of the country’s mineral resources is fierce.
Commercial interests are also affecting the behaviour of traditional donors, dampening their appetite for engaging Government in discussion of sensitive issues, such as good governance and the fight against corruption”.
Med andre ord: Donorer, der er blevet slappe i koderne.
Advarslerne står i kø om, hvordan det er gået andre steder, når pengene fra enorme naturressourcer strømmede ind: De rige bliver rigere og de fattige fattigere.
Angola er et godt eksempel: Her har en lille elite væltet sig i oliepenge, mens det store fattige flertal må klare dagens dont som altid.
Hvad siger landepapiret om det?
“The large revenues to be generated from the exploitation of Mozambique’s vast resources of coal, gas and other mineral deposits could help catapult the country along the way towards an inclusive growth model where the majority of people have opportunities for both contributing to and benefitting from economic growth.
But as experience from other countries wealthy in mineral resources shows, there is also a real risk of setting in motion a negative spiral where the economic interests of the elite prevails to the exclusion of the majority of the population, economically as well as socially and – by implication – also politically”.
En elite, der er ved at bringe sig i position
Papiret fortsætter:
“The Mozambican elite is jockeying for positions in relation to these investments and a considerable part of public or publicly guaranteed investments are sucked into the creation of infrastructure around the extractive complexes.
Corruption and misuse of public office is a widespread and serious problem in Mozambique. Comprehensive reforms of public financial management carried out over many years, with support also from Denmark, has significantly reduced the space for misuse of funds on the state budget, although petty corruption in contacts between civil servants and citizens is widespread.
With the investment boom, however, grey areas have spread around the state’s participation in economy through State Owned Enterprises, Public Private Partnerships and guarantees”.
Endnu en advarselslampe tændt – nye fede enge for korruption ligger klar. Og det kan dreje sig om enorme beløb. Genkomst af “grand corruption”
Et skrækscenarie, et godt et og et midt imellem
Landepapiret opstiller tankevækkende scenarier for, hvordan det kan gå:
“Looking ahead development may take the direction of any one of a range of potential scenarios.
At one extreme, the elite’s hold on political and economic power will be further consolidated based on a reinforcement of state capture (greb om magten) to the exclusion of the opposition and communities who support it.
A slightly different configuration of people in the elite may emerge to benefit and a certain level of public expenditures upheld to try to avoid revolt and legitimize the ruling party’s hold on power in a de facto one-party-state.
In this scenario the extractive (udvindings) industry is likely to remain as an enclave with few positive linkages and considerable risks to the wider economy. This exclusive model can only be upheld in the face of the growing opposition it is likely to create, by using the coercive means (magtmidler) of the state.
This will require excessive defence and security spending and may not prevent low intensity conflicts and bids for cessation coming from the Centre of the country.
At the other extreme, the moderate and development oriented forces within Frelimo will prevail and succeed in attracting support for a more conciliatory approach to the opposition and its supporters and for a government program with a much stronger focus on bringing poor people and regions into the mainstream of growth and development.
Here, the multi-party democracy stands a much better chance of succeeding.
Between these two extremes – the exclusive economic and political model and its inclusive opposite – stretches a continuum of (stribe af) more probable intermediary outcomes.
Mozambique’s external partners and perhaps most notably the G19 (donors) continues to wield sufficient power to be able to influence the direction the country will take, both through the political dialogue and the investments it makes to improve people’s lives.
However, it will be hard work to overcome the resistance from some G19 members to maintain a critical dialogue in support of an inclusive outcome because of conflicting donor interests and ideas about the level of influence the donors should seek”.
BLOT en appetitvækker til det landepapir, som alle interesserede nu kan drøfte på mødet fredag d. 27. februar på Asiatisk Plads.
Læs landepapiret i dets helhed (12 s.) på
http://um.dk/en/~/media/UM/English-site/Documents/Danida/About-Danida/Danida%20transparency/Consultations/2015/Mozambique%20Country%20Policy%20Paper%20synopsis%20final%20draft.pdf
Vide mere om Mozambique?
Se http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozambique
