Når verdens folketal mandag beregnes at passere syv milliarder, ligger den virkelige fare ikke i antallet af mennesker, men et helt andet sted
KOMMENTAR
Af Manish Bapna
Direktør for den amerikanske tænketank, World Resources Institute, 26. oktober 2011
If you believe the doomsday merchants, the scariest thing about this Halloween is the fact that the world’s population will pass seven billion on or near October 31.
Population growth, however, is not the biggest skeleton in the closet when it comes to our planet’s ability to absorb human impact. Far more damaging than the booming birth rate in low income countries are the resource-intensive lifestyles of the global rich and middle class.
Contrary to popular belief, reducing the global birth rate would not make a big dent in the amount of fossil fuels, minerals, and timber we use up.
For example, if the 1,3 billion people who lack electricity today were all able to tap basic lighting and heating services by 2030, world energy demand would rise by a mere one per cent, according to the International Energy Authority (IEA).
Contrast that with the destructive impact of middle class lifestyles on natural resources. In 2008, the United States consumed 39 times as much energy per person than Bangladesh, while citizens across all high income countries consumed 14 times more energy than those of low income countries.
Ekspanderende middelklasse
What is more, population growth is slowly leveling off (and will be concentrated in Africa) while the global middle class is expanding exponentially. According to Goldman Sachs, 70 million more men and women enter the middle income bracket every year.
By 2020, The Economist recently predicted, China’s economy is likely to outgrow that of the United States. And India is only a few decades behind. Meanwhile, 60 per cent of the Earth’s ecosystem services – the very resources that underpin our modern lifestyles – are already deteriorating under our over-exploitation.
Population growth is not a negligible issue. But on a planetary scale, high-consuming lifestyles are a bigger problem.
All this is not to suggest that hard-earned middle class lifestyles must be curbed or that Africans and Asians should be denied the chance to own laptops and iPods.
Far from it. Instead, as the middle class grows, business and governments need to find ways to shrink natural resource use, and ultimately decouple it from lifestyle and economic growth.
This may sound a tall order, but there are several vitally important areas, including food supply and water use, where we can make a good start today.
Læs videre på
http://insights.wri.org/news/2011/10/seven-billion-real-population-scare-not-what-you-think
Begynd fra “First, food. Worldwide…”
Se også telegrammet
http://www.u-landsnyt.dk/nyhed/28-10-11/gravide-maver-markerer-mandag-menneske-nr-70000000
