Den internationale Valutafond stiller i sit netop udkomne “World Economic Outlook” spørgsmålet: Er Afrika ved at have rundet det skarpe hjørne?
Her kapitlet in extenso taget fra rapporten:
Africa: Turning The Corner?
In sub-Saharan Africa, real GDP growth accelerated to 5.1 percent in 2004 (2.8 percent in per capita terms), the highest in almost a decade.
Growth has been underpinned by the strength of the global economy, including high oil and commodity prices, improved domestic macroeconomic policies and progress with structural reforms, and the ending of several protracted armed conflicts.
Growth was particularly strong in countries where oil production increased sharply (notably Angola, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea) and where agriculture recovered after a drought (Ethiopia and Rwanda), but conflicts and political instability (Ivory Coast) and poor governance (Zimbabwe) continued to affect some other countries.
Despite the appreciation of currencies pegged to the euro, high commodity prices underpinned an improvement in the regions current account balance. Inflation continued to decline, reaching single digits in 2004, the lowest rate for nearly three decades, although inflation in some countries – notably Zimbabwe – remained very high.
Looking forward, prospects generally remain favorable, with growth of 5,2 percent in 2005 and 5,6 percent in 2006 projected, aided by prudent macroeconomic policies, continuing structural reforms, and a supportive global economy.
Oil-exporting countries are expected to enjoy the strongest growth – as production continues to expand – while growth in nonoil-producing countries is expected to be affected by the slowdown in non-oil commodity prices. In particular, Benin, Burkina Faso, and Mali will continue to be hurt by persistently low cotton prices.
Seychelles and Somalia were hit by the recent tsunami. While the tsunamis impact on growth in the Seychelles is expected to be modest, the fiscal position and balance of payments will be adversely affected this year.
For Somalia, insufficient information is available to make an assessment of the tsunamis impact on the macroeconomy. There are several important risks to this outlook, however, including a less benign global economy and a disorderly depreciation of the dollar.
In particular, a sharp depreciation of the dollar is likely to weaken non-oil exports of the CFA franc zone countries given their peg to the euro and their increasing dependence on dollar-zone markets (United States and Asia).
Moreover, higher oil prices would adversely affect growth and the balance of payments in non-oil-producing countries, particularly if nonfuel commodity prices weaken.
A further important challenge for a number of countries in the region (notably Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, South Africa, and Swaziland) will be adjusting to the elimination of world textile trade quotas, which will increase the competition they face in the United States and the European Union from low-cost Asian countries; as a result textile production, employment (primarily of women workers), and exports are likely to fall.
The encouraging growth performance in recent years has renewed optimism that sub-Saharan Africa may be entering a period of strong and sustained economic expansion.
– Per capita income growth in sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated and become positive over the past five years – a significant improvement
compared with the previous two decades when sub-Saharan Africa recorded the worst growth performance among developing country regions.
– Per capita income volatility in sub-Saharan Africa has fallen over the past two decades, particularly among CFA franc zone countries. However, sub-Saharan Africa remains the most volatile region of the world.
In the absence of well-developed capital markets and insurance schemes – such as the social security systems prevalent in industrial countries – the effects of volatility in poor countries are substantial, as households and firms face large non-insurable employment, income, and investment risks.
What factors help explain this stronger growth and lower volatility?
While growth and volatility are influenced by many factors, economic reforms – that result in scarce resources being used more efficiently and in improved incentives for investments in high-return activities – and strong macroeconomic policies have played an important role in improving the prospects for sustained growth and macroeconomic stability across the world.
A large number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made progress in reforming their economies and strengthening macroeconomic policy implementation over the past decade, and an important part of the improvement in growth and reduction in volatility in the region can be attributed to these reform and stabilization efforts (see the IMFs forthcoming sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook).
One component of this has been the adoption of trade reforms that, by introducing more competition and mitigating the negative effects of volatility on economic growth, have helped improve the growth potential of countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
Trade regimes in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, however, remain generally more restrictive than in the dynamic economies of emerging Asia. Despite these encouraging developments, per capita income growth in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa is still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the Millennium Development Goals.
Therefore, countries need to deepen their reform programs to further strengthen growth prospects, including by promoting private sector investment, developing infrastructure, and strengthening institutions (including better transparency, governance, and property rights).
Progress under the New Partnership for Africas Development – a multicountry initiative to make progress in these areas – has so far been slow and limited. In addition, further trade, financial sector, and public sector reforms remain key to enhancing growth prospects in the region.
These reforms must be complemented by continued prudent macroeconomic policies, including better fiscal management of oil and commodity revenues.
The implementation of an effective strategy to moderate the impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic is also critical. The international community, in turn, must support these domestic reform efforts with increased aid, debt relief, and improved market access.
Turning to sub-Saharan Africas largest economies, South Africa is experiencing stronger output growth and important gains in formal sector employment. The economy expanded by 3,7 percent in 2004, and growth is expected to reach 4 percent this year.
Activity is being underpinned by buoyant domestic demand, which has been fueled by low interest rates, the wealth effects of booming asset prices – particularly housing prices – and, lately, more expansionary fiscal policy.
As a result of strong domestic demand and continued appreciation of the rand, the current account deficit widened to 2,5 percent of GDP in 2004. Capital inflows, buoyed by high domestic returns, have helped the central
bank to continue to strengthen its international reserves position.
The inflation outlook looks broadly favorable, although monetary growth is very rapid and unit labor costs are rising, raising the risk that without monetary tightening, the 3–6 percent inflation target may be missed.
Notwithstanding the recent gains in employment, unemployment is likely to remain high unless reforms are implemented to reduce existing labor market rigidities.
In Nigeria, short-term economic performance continues to be greatly influenced by developments in the oil and gas sectors. The economy grew by 3,5 percent in 2004 and is expected to expand by 7,4 percent this year as a major offshore oil field and two new liquefaction trains come on stream.
The adoption of more prudent macroeconomic policies has helped contain inflation, move the current account balance into a surplus, and increase international reserves sharply.
Looking ahead, further reforms – centered around a strengthening of fiscal policy and monetary policy, civil service reform, and efforts to reduce corruption – together with sound macroeconomic policies are critical for the achievement of rapid and sustained economic growth.
The government should take advantage of the current favorable environment to implement other reforms, including trade liberalization, the unification of the exchange rate, and privatization to help increase the efficiency and resilience of the economy.
In the Maghreb region (North Africa), the outlook remains positive notwithstanding an expected slowdown in output growth this year.
In Algeria, the economy slowed in 2004 – and is projected to slow further this year – reflecting a moderation in the expansion of hydrocarbon production. Fiscal policy has remained expansionary, as expenditures have been linked to hydrocarbon revenues.
Starting with the 2005 budget, the government has begun the process of fiscal consolidation by delinking government spending from volatile hydrocarbon revenues.
Financial sector reform, including the privatization of state-owned banks, and the pursuit of foreign trade liberalization are priorities to enhance economic growth and reduce the still-high levels of unemployment.
Hele rapporten World Economic Outlook kan læses på IMFs hjemmeside, www.imf.org
