NEW YORK, 19 October: Indias population is projected to cross 2 billion by 2101, making it the only country in the world to reach that mark.
This will eventually happen unless fertility rates in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the countrys two largest and poorest states, decline drastically, according to a leading population expert, Carl Haub, who is senior demographer of the reputed Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB).
Haub has recently produced a report titled “The Future Population of India: A Long-range View” along with PRBs India consultant, O.P. Sharma, in collaboration with the Population Foundation of India, New Delhi.
The report projects population, fertility rates, life expectancies, and broad age groups for India and each of its 35 states and union territories between 2001 and 2101.
According to the study, Indias population, which stands at over 1,1 billion today, would reach 1,8 billion by mid-century and may even exceed 2 billion by 2101 unless steps are taken to control the growth rates in what is called the Hindi-speaking heartland.
Even though the countrys total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from about six children per woman in 1952 to about three currently, the decline has been much greater in the southern states, which have long had high rates of literacy and education.
But Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with about 188 million and 93 million people respectively, still have a TFR of about 4,3 children per woman.
Haub said their projections assume that a smooth decline in fertility rates will, in fact, take place, reaching the two child family. – But if that does not happen, or if it takes much longer than we assumed, the resulting population would be even larger by 2101, noted he.
The factors pushing up TFR, he said, include early marriage among rural women who have little control over reproductive choices, deeply rooted traditions like son preference, which prevails even among higher income groups.
To curb population growth, Haub suggested reproductive health information and supplies be delivered to all villages, not just urban centres.
Womens education as a solution takes time, he said, but even uneducated women can be quickly informed about their choices. Men should also be convinced on the need for intelligent reproductive health choices as has been done successfully in Indonesia.
Comparing the experience of India – which is expected to overtake Chinas population by 2025 – and China, Haub said the latter greatly lowered its fertility rate through an involuntary programme that has been shown not to work well in India.
– Coercive (tvungen) family planning measures would only encourage abortion of female foetuses in India, he said.
In China, both rich and poor have low fertility, he pointed out, while the problem in India is its vast rural population and its comparatively rapid growth.
With rural population outstripping available land, there will be a tide of rural-to-urban migration, Haub said.
To stem it, he suggested creating non-agriculture employment centres as the governments National Rural Health Mission is designed to do. Another solution is to set up more industrial estates and special economic zones.
On the other hand, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which are already witnessing a greying of population, should address labour shortages by attracting migrants from other states, he suggested.
Kilder: Indo-Asian News Service og The Push Journal
