Hvis NATO som planlagt trækker sine kamptropper ud af Afghanistan i 2014, vil landet blive kastet ud i en ny lang og blodig borgerkrig.
Det advarer en pakistansk redaktør om samtidig med, at der mandag holdes en international konference om det plagede centralasiatiske land i Bonn i Tyskland.
Advarslen kommer i Berlingske mandag.
– Oprørerne er stærkere end nogensinde. Taliban venter blot på NATOs tilbagetrækning og vil med stor sandsynlighed gå efter at komme til magten igen, siger redaktør Rashed Rahman til avisen.
– Det vil møde hård modstand fra den del af afghanerne, der ikke støtter Taliban, og så har vi igen en regulær og efter alt at dømme langvarig borgerkrig, siger Rahman.
Han er redaktør for den sekulære (ikke-religiøse) og regimekritiske avis, “Daily Times” i nabolandet Pakistan og en anerkendt kender af forholdene i Afghanistan.
– En sådan borgerkrig vil ikke kun være en katastrofe for Afghanistan, der allerede har været hærget af konflikt i fire årtier. Heller ikke Pakistan eller de andre lande i regionen kan holde til endnu en langtrukken borgerkrig, anfører han overfor Berlingske.
Diskussionspapir om mulighederne i Afghanistan
Meanwhile, the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) issued a Discussion Paper: “The International Community’s Engagement in Afghanistan Beyond 2014”.
The paper discusses the challenges for transition and the cost of a hasty and unconditioned international withdrawal. It particularly focuses on security, economy, political framework, reconciliation, governance, human rights and regional politics.
The report, which is the result of the collaboration of key AAN contributors, emphasizes that stabilizing and rebuilding Afghanistan is both complex and complicated: there are no quick fixes, and what seems to be a solution in one field can cause further disruption and fragmentation in another.
It is important that international policy makers recognise that the successful implementation of individual policy recommendations in itself will fall short of providing long-term solutions and that continued international engagement in Afghanistan should be premised,
* first, on supporting the Afghan government to address the root causes of the conflict and,
* second, on ensuring that this support does not unintentionally entrench patterns of conflict and power imbalance.
The AAN paper argues that a constructive international engagement necessitates
* a focus on political and governance reforms,
* the establishment of more inclusive and transparent political processes and
* the defence of human rights and basic freedoms.
Alll of this alongside the current efforts to strengthen the Afghan security forces, expand the economy and improve regional relations.
Rapporten ses på http://www.aan-afghanistan.com/uploads/Bonnfinal.pdf
