VK-regeringen har udsendt sit oplæg til en efter eget udsagn ny Afrika-politik. Vi bringer her et sammendrag af analysen, der ligger bag
Making Progress In Africa – An Updated Analytical Overview
by the Africa Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark
(Danidas Afrika-kontor)
SUMMARY
This analytical overview of major issues and challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa , incorporates key developments since the presentation of the current Danish Africa policy in 2004.
The purpose of the overview is to provide a thorough basis for a new Danish Africa policy, which will be presented in a separate document. The overview itself therefore in general abstains from drawing policy conclusions.
The overview confirms that positive trends have continued in recent years, but also that significant challenges remain. Poverty reduction is the primary objective of the international community in Africa, and most observers agree that Africa overall will not meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and that a major effort is needed to ensure continued progress.
African countries are increasingly divided among good performers with high growth rates, and a group of countries lagging behind and characterised by low growth, political instability and high levels of poverty.
POPULATION GROWTH and the increasing number of young people in Africa present a unique and growing set of challenges in an era of globalisation, where issues such as radicalisation and migration have profound regional and global implications, and are moving higher on the international agenda.
Foundations for Development
Africa is not reaping the full benefits of globalisation, and the continents importance in the global economy is shrinking. Globalisation has caused the development challenge in Africa to become increasingly complex and has also caused a broadening of the objectives for international engagement in Africa.
Development assistance cannot be seen in isolation from other policy areas such as trade, security and migration.
POVERTY ALLEVIATION remains the key objective of the international community in Africa and the overriding objective of development aid. Poverty includes an important economic dimension, but the entire life situation of individuals needs to be addressed in a human development approach.
This is another reason why a comprehensive approach is needed in Africa, an approach that includes more than just development assistance. Poverty is also gender-specific, and gender aspects require cross-cutting attention.
While the rate of population growth is slowing down in other continents, the African population will continue to grow rapidly, and the number of young people will rise significantly. This creates a particular set of challenges for donors and governments in Africa, in particular in West Africa where population growth is highest.
To ensure EDUCATION and JOBS for increasing numbers of young people will be essential for dealing with other issues high on the international agenda in an era of globalisation, such as migration, conflict and radicalisation, and will demand a multi-sectoral and multidimensional approach.
Young women are often marginalized and with even fewer possibilities and rights than young men.
However, the energy and flexibility of YOUTH and demographic transition with a decreasing dependency ratio of children and elderly to the working population also presents a window of opportunity, and there are indications that Africans are becoming more optimistic about the future and more willing to endure hardship in the short run as a consequence of reform efforts.
ECONOMIC GROWTH is crucial for employment generation and poverty reduction. A significant number of African countries have experienced robust growth rates over the last decade. The high growth rates appear to have gained momentum since 2003, driven by increasing prices of raw materials and by strengthened reform efforts.
However, there is significant variation among countries, and many continue to be trapped in conditions of low growth. This has led to a stronger focus on economic growth in national development planning in recent years.
Despite a strong trend of urbanisation, AGRICULTURE remains Africas dominant economic sector. The need to improve agricultural productivity and the challenge of generating alternative sources of income should be addressed in a comprehensive approach.
The PRIVATE SECTOR more broadly plays a key role for generating economic growth and some African countries have had remarkable successes with reforms aimed at strengthening an enabling environment. This had led to recent increases in foreign direct investment and other private capital inflows, which contribute to economic growth and development of local capital markets.
MIGRATION in response to hardship and insecurity and the prospect of a better life elsewhere is a long-term feature of the African continent. Migration takes place mainly among or within African countries.
In some cases, migration can have negative economic effects and cause social tensions. Migration from Africa to Europe, while less significant than intra-African migration, has increased in recent years.
BRAIN DRAIN is a significant problem for many African countries, but experiences gained abroad may become valuable if these migrants return home. REMITTANCES have also grown rapidly during the last decade as a source of financing, heightening donor interest in cooperation with diaspora organisations.
There is no doubt that long-term sustainable growth in Africa will depend on TRADE LIBERALISATION. However, African countries would need to undergo considerable adjustment to benefit from trade liberalisation, and “supply side constraints” hamper not only exports, but also the economy in general.
There is growing evidence that trade liberalisation in the short run will have little or even negative impact on GDP in most African countries. Negotiations on Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and the regional groupings of ACP countries are ongoing and aim at a gradual integration of African countries into the world economy.
African governments see economic integration at the sub-regional level as a first step in implementation of the EPAs.
The HEALTH SECTOR in most African countries is under-funded and struggles with insufficient staffing levels and low motivation of employees. HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases place a huge burden on health systems. The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to expand in some countries, with very high infection rates in particular in Southern Africa, but appears to be levelling off over all.
Prevention will remain central in the fight against HIV/AIDS, but as anti-retroviral medication becomes cheaper, it creates a need to scale up this treatment, building upon national health systems.
EDUCATION is a powerful motor of development. Literacy rates in Africa have improved, but remain well below those of other developing countries. The MDG of universal primary education will not be met, and in particular many girls do not complete primary school.
Increasing attention is being given to the need to invest in vocational and higher education in order to promote economic growth. Public investment in research and development may also have a strong impact on income and poverty.
African countries have the lowest emissions of GREENHOUSE GASSES, but Africa is more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the world. The effects of global warming, including both desertification and increased flooding, are already having an impact.
Adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority, but Africans also need access to modern, clean energy sources for their long-term development. Economic growth and development in Africa depend largely on sustainable use of natural resources and ecosystem services.
At least four of the MDGs will not be met in Africa unless decisive action is taken to stabilize ecosystems.
Peace-building and state-building
Effective and democratic states based on GOOD GOVERNANCE are conducive to development, as they have the organisation, capacity and legitimacy to promote long-term stability and sustainable development.
State-building includes a comprehensive focus on all the states core functions, and it remains a general challenge in Africa, as some features of state fragility can be found in almost all African countries.
There is also growing recognition that international donors should not disengage from fragile states despite the difficult conditions, but should work to reduce spillover risks and provide a platform for development.
DEMOCRACY and political freedom is increasingly being accepted in Africa. More and more African leaders are leaving office via peaceful elections. Nevertheless, neo-patrimonial informal power structures based on kinship or personal connections often continue to undermine modern state institutions. Democratisation is a long-term process with a high risk of setbacks and failures.
CIVIL SOCIETY is an important factor in building democratic states. Donors also support delivery of social services by NGOs in many areas where the state fails to deliver these.
Traditional governance structures have also become more important in the last decade, as they have taken over a range of basic state functions in poor and marginalized areas. States often recognise traditional leaders in the name of democracy, but the extent to which chiefs represent local accountability remains unclear.
The RULE OF LAW is a prerequisite for the respect for human rights and is also necessary for economic growth and development. However, the lack of capacity and funding in the legal sectors in many African countries remain an obstacle, and the judiciary may not be fully independent. At lower levels, customary or traditional law may often be a more affordable alternative to poor people.
The majority of African countries have ratified most key UN HUMAN RIGHTS treaties, but implementation of treaty obligations lags far behind. The lack of protection given to human rights defenders, the frequent reports of torture and the widespread application of the death penalty remain serious human rights issues in many African countries.
Despite progress, gender inequalities and discrimination of women continue to be serious problems in Africa.
The public sector in most African countries has traditionally been closely associated with the ruling parties, and this has created a basic problem of legitimacy compounded by low levels of effectiveness, efficiency and accountability as well as limited funding.
In recent years, political and administrative REFORMS have improved the situation, and there has also been a growing awareness among donors of the political implications of public sector reform, including anti-corruption measures and decentralisation.
Most conflicts in Africa occur in FRAGILE STATES with weak institutions. The growing number of discontented unemployed young men poses a particular risk for the outburst of conflicts in the future. Women, men and children are affected differently by violent conflict and contribute differently to peace-building processes.
The processes leading to radicalisation and TERRORISM are complex, and it is uncertain to what extent radicalisation is growing in Africa. However, radicalisation appears to be linked to periods of rapid transition, and there is growing attention to the risk of radicalisation.
Radicalisation is often associated with religious groups, but there is no evidence that a strengthened presence of religion is a direct cause of violence or conflict. Religious groups may often play positive as well as negative roles.
Transitional justice addresses the legacies of widespread human rights abuses in post-conflict situations. Filling the rule of law vacuum after conflict is essential to development. Balancing inherent dilemmas between transitional justice mechanisms and rule of law initiatives and long term strengthening of legal sectors is often required.
Security Sector Reform (SSR) is crucial to the achievement of overall stability and peace-building. Direct donor engagement in SSR in Africa still remains limited.
Regional trends and African integration
African political dynamics since independence has been largely defined by conflict between ETHNIC GROUPS over scarce resources. However, African integration, changing economic patterns and economic growth, and the emergence of a few African countries, including Nigeria and South Africa, with the potential to influence regional developments in a positive direction, are creating new political opportunities.
The highly populated sub-region of West Africa has a long history of violent conflict and a series of inter-connected civil wars, and conflict risk remains high in the region.
ECOLOGICAL CHALLENGES are particularly severe due to desertification of the Sahel region. Population growth is high and large numbers of youth lack access to education and jobs. Most illegal immigration to Europe from Sub-Saharan Africa originates in West Africa.
Regional cooperation in ECOWAS on both economic and security issues is the most advanced on the continent and has been an important asset in managing recent conflicts.
CENTRAL AFRICA has also been through its own series of inter-connected civil wars, driven by a high degree of state fragility and poverty coupled with the presence of vast natural resources.
The conflicts in the DR Congo and in the area of the Great Lakes in Rwanda and Burundi provoked external interventions by neighbouring countries, but peace agreements in the last few years have paved the way for transitional governments and elections. Regional cooperation is practically non-existent.
In the greater HORN OF AFRICA area, a third set of inter-connected conflicts is unfolding from Darfur in the West to Somalia in the East, driven mostly by domestic factors such as underdevelopment and marginalisation of ethnic groups.
Radicalisation is an increasingly important issue. The sub-region suffers under repeated natural disasters and humanitarian crises, and the competition for fertile land and water sources contributes to conflict and the highest number of refugees and migrants in the world.
The sub-region of Southern Africa is defined by the presence of Africas richest country, SOUTH AFRICA, and the historic struggle against apartheid. Some neighbouring countries are still in post-conflict transition, but most have passed the transitional stage with a high risk of resumption of conflict.
The exception is Zimbabwe, where economic collapse generates migration to neighbouring countries on a large scale and threatens regional stability.
AFRICAN INTEGRATION is primarily driven by the need to strengthen stability and security on the continent, but cooperation increasingly covers other areas. A large number of overlapping organisations and structures – many with weak capacity – create a need for streamlining, but member states are reluctant to abandon existing structures with specific histories and purposes.
The AFRICAN UNION (AU) has demonstrated considerable potential in acting as the leading African multilateral organisation and is tasked with coordinating activities of the sub-regional organisations regarding the establishment of an African Security Architecture. Denmark is actively supporting these efforts.
The NEPAD African Peer Review Mechanism has been more complex than anticipated, and it is still too early to evaluate its impact.
A growing number of regional human rights bodies have been established in recent years both at pan-African and sub-regional levels. This development reflects the trend towards stronger regional integration. For various reasons, including lack of funds, most of these bodies are not functioning effectively.
Sub-regional cooperation is mostly driven by political and security concerns and implementation of trade arrangements is often weak. The low level of intra-regional trade is also caused by a lack of strongly differentiated comparative advantages, which decreases the economic potential for trade between African countries.
More and better aid?
After a decline of ODA (offical development assistance) during the 1990s, future aid prospects to Africa appear promising. The high aid volume in recent years, however, is to a large extent due to debt relief, emergency assistance and other special purpose grants.
The PROMISES by G8 and the EU to scale up aid flows to Africa significantly may prove difficult to meet in terms of capacity to both deliver and absorb core aid programmes at the country level.
Development assistance to Africa has changed markedly over time. An important shift has beeen the determination of all parties to ensure nationally owned poverty strategies based on Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP). Sector-wide approaches and budget support have become common instruments when delivering aid.
The PARIS DECLARATION from 2005 sets the framework for a coherent response to the challenge of aid effectiveness and national ownership. A number of global sector-based programmes have emerged and grown rapidly in size over the last few years, presenting a challenge to the harmonization agenda.
Adding to the complexities of implementing the Paris agenda is a group of major NEW DONOR countries, which have emerged while other donors have stepped up their involvement.
This new group is not homogeneous. The group includes among others China and India, as well as Islamic countries and organizations. There is a need for additional knowledge about the work of the donors and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate within the framework of the Paris Declaration.
Modalities for DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION have changed over the years. A broader approach is applied with a more comprehensive commitment to sector support and a focus on policy and institutional development.
Promoting aid effectiveness is a priority, and the donor-recipient relation has changed to partnership cooperation. Cooperation in Africa concentrates on nine programme countries, all relatively good performers, but also includes support to two fragile states – Niger and Sudan – and to South Africa, an emerging economic power on the continent.
Danish bilateral ODA is expected to increase over the coming years. The Danish Government has decided to provide at least 0,8 per cent of GNI as development aid, and to allocate up to two-thirds of bilateral aid to Africa.
Simultaneously, the process of implementing the Paris Declaration will result in a REDUCTION in the number of Danish programmes in the partner countries. These tendencies pull in the same direction toward LARGER SECTOR PROGRAMMES, and this will pose a major future challenge.
A growing number of African countries have emerged from crisis or conflict in recent years. Poverty in these countries is often much larger than in those countries, which attract most international support.
Development assistance in POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES is increasingly seen as part of international peace support packages that also include humanitarian aid, security and political components interacting together, where the typical focus is on short-term stabilisation rather than long-term development.
Denmark has provided targeted support for post-conflict interventions in recent years, gaining valuable experiences.
A number of UN PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS are active in Africa, and the Danish contribution has so far been limited. In the coming years, the number of Danish troops available for international operations globally will increase from 1.100 (2005) to 2.000 (2009).
Several tools for development interventions in post-conflict situations have emerged that take state fragility as their starting point. Post-Conflict Needs Assessments provide a framework for operational planning and coordination around key results and a calendar for implementation.
The key determinants in the selection of aid instruments and modalities will typically be an assessment of state capacity and POLITICAL WILL to reform.
HUMANITARIAN AID is typically an important instrument in post-conflict situations, and work is underway among international humanitarian actors to reform the humanitarian system in order to make it more effective and facilitate the transition from relief to development.
In situations of deteriorating governance or serious human rights violations in partner countries, donors need to balance the need to demonstrate accountability with the possibility to influence the situation through continued cooperation and a desire to maintain development results.
A number of challenges need to be overcome in operationalising EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS, and it will remain a challenge to donors to respond to deteriorating governance and human rights violations in a coherent way.
Regular POLITICAL DIALOGUE in different contexts will provide an opportunity to raise concerns, while the human rights machinery of the UN and increasingly African mechanisms, including the NEPAD Peer Review Mechanism, may be used to bring up serious violations.
Early adjustments of aid programmes based on an in-depth understanding of power relations have helped move the situation in a positive direction, and maintained and protected capacity and development results.
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