A World Bank study has found that a rise of one meter in sea levels from global warming would force at least 60 million people in developing countries to abandon their homes as waters submerged large swaths of coastal areas.
Rising sea levels would have the most drastic effect on populations in the Middle East, North Africa and East Asia, the study found, with inundation (oversvømmelse) displacing about a tenth of the of the people from countries with large settlements in river delta areas such as Egypt and Vietnam.
The study, released Tuesday, used satellite maps and data to calculate the effect in 84 coastal developing countries. World Bank officials said they hoped their report would help international organizations and the countries affected plan for inevitable rises.
If seas rise one meter this century, as forecast in some scientific models, one-fourth of the heavily populated Nile Delta in Egypt would be underwater, said World Bank Senior Economist Susmita Dasgupta, author of a report on the impact of sea level rise on developing countries.
Coastal Vietnam would also be severely affected, Dasgupta said at a briefing, as would Mauritania, Suriname, Guyana, French Guiana, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, the Bahamas and Benin. – Knowing which countries will be most affected could allow better targeting of scarce available resources and could spur vulnerable nations to develop national adaptation plans now and avoid big losses later, Dasgupta said.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, recently projected that sea levels would rise by 18 to 59 centimeters by 2100.
Kilde: www.worldbank.org
