Deaths and injuries from climate change are set to rise by more than double in the next 25 years, according to estimates to be published soon.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is finalizing data forecasting that deaths linked to even a very narrow number of causes most closely connected to shifting weather patterns will reach more than 300.000 a year by 2030.
The number of disease- adjusted life years (so-called Dalys) lost – a measure of injury and earlier death – linked to warming will rise in the period to more than 11 million.
The data focus on the impact of temperature change on diarrhea-related disease, malaria and malnutrition. The estimates will add to the urgency of the debate on efforts to limit the human impact of global warming, highlighted in recent US talks over the risks to international security caused by climate-related political disruptions and social unrest.
The new WHO estimates build on research by Tony McMichael at the Australian National University, which calculated that in 2000 there were already 166.000 deaths and 5,5 million Dalys caused by warming that had taken place since the 1970s.
The figures do not take into account ill-health as the result of more frequent and intense dust and wind storms, forest fires and malnutrition caused by drought, floods, pests and reduced biodiversity; and the damage to health infrastructure and by population displacement.
Kilde: www.worldbank.org
