Den af de to tilbageværende egyptiske præsidentkandidater, der vinder weekendens valg, har en enorm opgave foran sig: At ophjælpe millioner af fattige i et land, hvor statskassen er ved at løbe tom.
CAIRO, 15 June 2012 (IRIN): Egypt’s presidential run-off, in which around 50 million people are voting this weekend (16-17 June), is spotlighting challenges such as poverty alleviation (lindring), the role of NGOs, and environmental issues.
The vote comes in the wake of a popular uprising which ousted Hosni Mubarak’s regime 14 months ago and about 20 days after the first round of elections. Two presidential candidates are standing – the Islamist Mohamed Mursi, and Mubarak’s last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq.
Almost 25 percent of Egypt’s 85 million people live in poverty, including 4,8 percent who live in extreme poverty, according to the state-run Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
This is perhaps why “poverty alleviation” gets frequent mention in the programmes of both Mursi and Shafiq.
Mursi promises to reduce poverty by, among other things, using Islamic charity money (`zakat’) to provide financial support and training for poor Egyptians to help them find jobs.
“I do not want to give people a fish, but want to teach them how to fish,” he said in a recent interview with private Al Mehwar TV.
He promises to control prices by encouraging consumer protection agencies to monitor the markets and by setting fixed prices for basic commodities.
He says he will redistribute wealth by obliging the rich to pay higher taxes, and create universal social insurance (sociale grundydelser for alle). Mursi also vows to guarantee a minimum income for workers and pensioners.
Shafiq, on the other hand, promises to give pensions to the poor, stop subsidizing energy for industries and ensure that subsidies reach the needy.
Without elaborating, he vows to adopt strategies that reduce poverty, improve living conditions, and deliver services to Egypt’s slums.
But away from the promises made by both candidates, whoever wins will face huge fiscal challenges, economists say.
“What strikes me as strange is that neither candidate tells us how he will reduce poverty in definite terms,” leading economic analyst Maged Aly, formerly with the Egyptian daily Al-Masri Al-Youm, told IRIN.
“I think it will take the next president a long time to reduce poverty in a noticeable manner and this might go beyond their presidential term”, noted he.
The new president has to secure a hefty 22,5 billion US dollar needed to finance the budget deficit for the fiscal year 2012-2013. Unemployment is running at around 12,4 percent – around 3,4 million people out of a total workforce of 27 million.
State coffers running dry
“He has to take some action on subsidies (støtteordninger,der holderne priserne nede på) for energy, basic foodstuffs and service payments for foreign and domestic debts,” Aly said, adding: “These debts are approaching the overall size of Egypt’s economy.”
According to the Carnegie Endowment, Egypt pays around 6 percent (16 billion dollar) of its total GDP on subsidizing energy and electricity every year – 20 percent of total government spending.
Another 9,6 billion dollar are spent on other subsidies. Food subsidies only account for a small percentage of this – 2,3-3.3 billion dollar a year.
However, according to the World Bank, most of these non-targeted subsidies do not benefit the poor.
Foreign reserves have been declining at the rate of 1,4 billion dollar a month and are now down to less than 40 percent their January 2011 level. At 15,2 billion dollar, these reserves are barely enough to cover three months’ worth of imports.
The fact that Egypt imports around 60 percent of its food and 40 percent of its fuel, makes this all the more challenging for the next president, economists say.
“This also makes us vulnerable to world food and fuel prices rises. Price hikes in international markets can further complicate matters for the president”, Aly said.
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http://www.irinnews.org/Report/95655/Briefing-Egypt-s-presidential-candidates-vow-to-tackle-poverty
