10 months after the military coup – where is Myanmar heading?

On the 1st of February the Myanmar military staged a coup and overturned the civilian government under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi just before the beginning of a new parliamentary term. Ten years of democratic transition ended overnight, and the future is still unpredictable. The military is facing a strong pro-democracy popular resistance across the country, the economy is in ruins, and the country is facing a humanitarian crisis. Little suggests that the military has control over the developments and its violent responses to the resistance has resulted in an increasingly more organized, but also armed opposition to the military. 

Situated between India and China, the instability in Myanmar has wider geopolitical repercussions, particularly on the future of Southeast Asia.  If Myanmar turns into a failed state, the spillover effects will affect the neighboring countries in terms of migrations, growing illicit economies, and challenges to the coherence of ASEAN. 

This public seminar will bring together international Myanmar experts to provide critical insights into the current political situation and the main future challenges for Myanmar and its neighbors. It will focus in particular on three key clusters of questions: How has the opposition to the military coup developed, and what role do political parties and electoral politics play in current and future developments? How can we understand the military’s (Tatmadaw) political power, its internal psychology, and institutional and economic embeddedness in Myanmar society? What are the regional and international repercussions of the developments since the coup, and how should we understand the interests and roles of China and ASEAN in shaping Myanmar’s future in particular? 

The renown historian Thant Myint-U will inaugurate the seminar with a keynote speech ‘The evolution of Myanmar’s political economy, the failure of politics, and prospects for revolutionary change‘ followed by three panels that each address the key clusters of questions. At the end of the first day, the seminar will round off with a public launch of the book ‘Everyday Justice in Myanmar’ (NIAS Press 2020), followed by a reception. 

Speakers
Thant Myint-U, Historian, conservationist and former Presidential Adviser  
Moe Thuzar, Fellow, and Co-coordinator of the Myanmar Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore
Jason Tower, Country Director, Burma, United States Institute of Peace (USIP)
Marco Bünte, Professor at the Institute of Asian Politics and Society, University of Erlangen- Nürnberg 
Morten Pedersen, Senior Lecturer, University of South Wales
Michael Lidauer, Associate of the Myanmar Institute and independent consultant 
Lisbeth Pilegaard, Director, Danish Institute for Parties and Democracy (DIPD)
Myat The Thitsar, Phd Candidate, University of Massachusetts -Lowell
Mikael Gravers, Emeritus Associate Professor, Aarhus University
Christian Lund, Professor, Copenhagen University
Kirsten McConnachie, Professor, University of East Anglia
Elisabeth Rhoads, Postdoc, Lund University
Anders Baltzer Jørgensen, Emeritus Researcher and previous Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Annika Pohl Harrisson, Postdoc Researcher, Aarhus University 
Susanne Kempel, Researcher and independent consultant
John Nielsen, Senior Analyst at DIIS and former Danish Ambassador to Myanmar
Helene Maria Kyed, Head of Research Unit, DIIS 

PROGRAMME – Wednesday 24 November 2021

09.00-09.15   Welcome and introduction, Helene Maria Kyed
09.15-09.50   Keynote speech: The evolution of Myanmar’s political economy, the failure of politics, and prospects for revolutionary change, Thant Myint-U
This part will not be streamed!
09.50-10.30   Q&A with the audience – chaired by John Nielsen
10:30-10.45   Coffee/tea break
10.45-11.45   Panel 1: Political update and understanding the Myanmar military(Tatmadaw)

• The post-coup situation: Cascading human crises, Morten Pedersen
• Military guardianship: the role and understanding of the Tatmadaw in Myanmar, Marco Bünte
• Soldier defections and internal opposition since the coup, Helene Maria Kyed

11.45-12.30   Q&A with the audience – chaired by Jason Tower
12.30-13.15   Lunch break
13.15-14.15   Panel 2: Elections, political parties, and the opposition to the military

• The ‘electoral narrative’ of the coup d´etat and future perspectives, Michael Lidauer
• What is the role of and how have political parties in Myanmar developed? Lisbeth Pilegaard
• Who is the opposition, what are their visions and internal and external challenges? Myat The Thitsar

14.15-14.45   Q&A with the audience – chaired by Susanne Kempel 
14.45-15.00   Coffee/tea break
15.00-16.00   Book launch of ‘Everday Justice in Myanmar’

• Helene Maria Kyed (editor)
• Mikael Gravers
• Anders Baltzer Jørgensen
• Annika Pohl Harrisson
• Elisabeth Rhoads
• Kirsten McConnachi 

16.00-16.30   Comments by discussant – chair Christian Lund
                         Q&A with the audience
16.30-17.30   Reception 

PROGRAMME – Thursday 25 November 2021

10.00-10.10   Welcome, John Nielsen
10.10-11.10   Panel 3: International repercussions of the coup and the role of China and ASEAN in Myanmar

• What has been the International response to the crisis in Myanmar – an overview, John Nielsen
• ASEAN its role, opportunities and limitations in relation to the Myanmar crisis, Moe Thuzar
• China’s interests and calculations in Myanmar: the quest for the Indian Ocean and what it means for the future, Jason Tower

11.10-11.25   Coffee/tea break
11.25-12.00   Q&A with the audience – chaired by Morten Pedersen

Practical information
The seminar will be held in English. Participation in the Auditorium at DIIS is free of charge, but registration is required.

The seminar will also be livestreamed on DIIS’ website – the video will show instead of the picture at the latest 10 min. before start – no registration required for livestream.

Contact
Reach DIIS Event on phone: 3269 8787 or via e-mail: [email protected]   

Register for a seat here