BUJUMBURA, Burundi, 19 November 2009 (IRIN): Next year’s elections in Burundi, billed as a milestone on the country’s long road to sustainable peace, could trigger more conflict because of a combination of widespread illegal weapons and well-organized youth wings of political parties, according to analysts.
Power struggles in Burundi have provoked bouts of armed violence and civil war from independence in 1962 until the country’s last rebel group gave up and became a political party in April 2009.
According to Jean-Marie Gasana, a veteran Burundi analyst, the risks associated with the youth wings are exacerbated by the presence “of large caches of arms in the hands of civilians”.
“Even more worrying is what happens should the opposition contest the outcome of the elections,” he told IRIN in Bujumbura. “We are likely to see a repeat of scenarios… where violence has ensued following flawed elections.”
“We could return to civil war,” echoed Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa, founding president of the Burundi Association for the Protection of Human Rights and Detainees.
Some groups feel unfairly targeted by the authorities. Odette Ntahiraja, the secretary-general of the Mouvement pour la solidarité et la démocratie (MSD), a party registered in June 2009, told IRIN its young supporters were “often denied the right to hold demonstrations”.
“Sometimes they are even arrested and some are beaten. Yet other youth groups are armed and go ahead and intimidate people without any action being taken against them,” she added.
For the European Network for Central Africa (EURAC), a Brussels-based coalition of advocacy NGOs, “The potential for violence is not yet under control” in Burundi. It cited divisions within political parties, widespread precarious living conditions, bad governance and the fact that “the rule of law is still under construction” as potential drivers of unrest.
For land conflict and human rights consultant Rene-Claude Niyonkuru, land issues are another factor: “We would be mistaken if we said there will be no violence – especially related to issues such as land. The people are frustrated, especially returnees, who are coming home in large numbers. The government had been encouraging them to return [but] it seems the same government is ill-prepared to ensure their smooth resettlement.”
He called for the mobilization of the population to address land conflicts: “Why can’t we use the election period to interrogate potential candidates on their proposals and commitment to the resolution of land disputes in the country?”
According to the president of the electoral commission, Pierre Claver Ndayicariye, it has established a technical committee on security and is working with the Ministry of Public Security – with the support of donor countries such as the Netherlands and Norway as well as the UN Development Programme – to build the capacity of the security forces to ensure peaceful elections.
