Det fremgår af en pressemeddelelse onsdag.
Rapporten er udarbejdet af International Council of Clean Transportation, Cambridge Economstreics og Pövry.
Pressemeddelelsen lyder som følger:
New analysis launched Wednesday – in the report Oil Market Futures – shows that policies to promote low‐carbon mobility would reduce global oil prices and could thereby reduce global spending on oil by $330 bln each year between 2020 and 2030.
The uptake of technologies such as hybrid and electric vehicles would help keep oil prices significantly lower – by 15% in 2020 & 29% in 2040 – when compared to business as usual.
Cheaper oil will free‐up billions for oil importing countries, to then be spent in other parts of the economy. These are the findings of ground‐breaking analysis from leading economic analysts Cambridge Econometrics and other experts.
- As the EU imports 88% of its oil, the projected reduction in demand would lower its oil bill by €29 bln by 2030. If this transition were pursued globally, the additional fall in oil prices would lower the EU’s oil bill by a further €12bln.
- As a major oil importer, the European economy as a whole will see significant benefit from as a result of lower oil prices, far outweighing any reduction in profits for importers and processors.
- Under a low‐carbon mobility scenario, GDP for the region will be 0.2% higher by 2030 and 0.5% higher by 2050, as a result of lower oil prices. Further economic benefits could accrue from increased investment in low‐carbon transport technologies and energy sources.
- This would partly be the result of a 0.9% rise in average real incomes by 2050 and lead to the creation of 400,000 new jobs.
The analysis also demonstrated that the age of ultra‐cheap oil will be limited.
Without the necessary action to address climate change, the oil price could rise as high as $130 per barrel in 2050. But if policies were implemented to drive investment in low‐carbon transport technologies, thereby reducing demand for oil, this could be limited to $83 ‐ $87 a barrel in 2050.
The report comes just days before 130 countries are confirmed this Friday, to sign‐up to the COP 21 climate deal, agreed at the end of 2015 in Paris.
To achieve the Paris commitment to limit temperature rises caused by climate change to well below 2°C and with a target of 1.5°C, it will be necessary to revolutionise the transport sector. This will require a significant increase in ambition of transport policy to encourage a shift to more efficient and environmentally friendly forms of transport.
Philip Summerton, Director at Cambridge Econometrics and lead author of the report, explains:
“Without any further policy changes, oil prices are likely to recover in the long‐term, driven by global economic growth and increasing demand for mobility. In a world where climate policies are being implemented to drive investment in low‐carbon technologies – as governments agreed in Paris – demand for oil will be curbed, and ultimately reduced, leading to lower oil prices than would otherwise be the case."
“Through policy support and technological innovation, we can expect the global economy to be using 11 million fewer barrels of oil per day by 2030 than we would without significant changes to transport technologies. Lower oil prices would benefit oil‐importing regions such as Europe by reducing inflationary pressures on consumers, increasing real incomes, and shifting spending towards other goods and services that deliver more value for Europe."
Adding greater context to the outlook for the oil sector, Gareth Davies, Director Energy Consulting, Pöyry adds:
”The rise of shale oil, the slowing world economy and OPEC’s changed production policy have led to unprecedented levels of oversupply in global oil markets. Our central view is this oversupply will unwind and prices will return to $80/barrel by 2020.
In a business‐as‐usual scenario prices would continue to rise after 2020, however aggressive climate policies could deliver oil demand reductions that would hold prices at this level.”
The effectiveness of such policies has already been proven, with higher vehicle efficiency standards implemented globally between 2000‐2015 having already avoided the consumption of around 5 billion barrels of oil.
Drew Kodjak, Executive Director, The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), said: “We have seen how vehicle standards around the globe have already reduced oil demand, and with governments increasingly waking up to the imperative to tackle climate change, we can expect this trend to strengthen.
“Companies such as Tesla have shown what innovative engineers are capable of, and governments in California, Norway and the Netherlands have shown how rapidly change can be delivered via smart policies. This analysis shows how decision‐makers can tackle the twin challenges of transport emissions and resource dependency."
The ground‐breaking research is a first of its kind, incorporating detailed analysis from a range of expert partner organizations, including Cambridge Econometrics, ICCT and Pöyry, with the research being funded by the European Climate Foundation.
Its findings are based on two scenarios. In one, action is taken globally to drive forward low‐carbon forms of transport and the other is based on business‐as‐usual projections. The modelling is consistent with International Energy Agency and New Climate Economy analysis.
The report findings compliment a growing body of research and evidenced trends that show the 2020s will be a period of substantial disruption in the transport sector.
