Når en person i u-landene står i vand til halsen efter store oversvømmelser, skal der ydes hjælp her og nu uanset om det skyldes vejrliget eller dybere klimaændringer – papirer og kalkuler er ikke nok i kampen for “klimatilpasning”.
JOHANNESBURG, 21 August 2013 (IRIN): If you ask climate scientists to indulge in (begive sig ud i) some crystal ball gazing to predict what impact climate change could have in the next 10 years, they would probably refuse.
That is because climate is weather averaged (jævnes ud af vejret) over several decades. Changes occur slowly and are recorded over a period of decades or hundreds – even thousands – of years.
How, then, can aid groups and communities plan to address near-future climate-related disasters?
According to Thomas Knutson, a US climate scientist and co-chair of the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones, the historical record – going back a century or more – can give some indication of what’s to come.
“In my view, clearly the aid agencies and communities should be at least prepared to face weather and climate events of the same order (intensity, etc.),” Knutson told IRIN.
Examining the historical data for signs of man-made climate change in a particular area could also be a pointer to the future.
“For example, if a drought or extreme temperatures occur in some region, is there already published evidence for a detectable anthropogenic contribution to the variable in question (e.g., a drought indicator in the case of a drought, or temperatures in the case of the extreme temperatures)?”, noted he.
A new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be released on 27 September.
And the Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) report “will be useful for a very crude initial interpretation of possible contributing factors to climate/weather events that we will experience in the next 10 years,” Knutson said.
Focus on the people
But rather than getting caught up in what might happen, many scientists advocate focusing on policies that prepare people and countries to face the unknown.
Richard Klein, one of the authors of SREX, says that to people experiencing the consequences of extreme events, whether those events were caused by climate change or natural variability is irrelevant.
“Insisting on this distinction in adaptation decision-making is, in my view, unethical and inefficient”, he stresses.
This should not guide adaptation (klimatilpasnings) policy and finance, he told IRIN:
“Imagine a flooded river, and 10 meters away from you someone in the water is crying for help. Rather than throwing them a 10 meter-long rope, you first do a quick calculation to find out that the probability of the flood being due to climate change is 40 percent and to natural variability 60 percent.
“You therefore decide to throw the person in the water a 4 meter long rope, and suggest they swim the other 6 meters themselves, or ask someone else for a 6m rope. If that person can’t swim, and if there is nobody to provide them with additional help, then not only will the 4 meter rope be insufficient to help them, it will also be a wasted effort.”
Integrating adaptation and disaster risk reduction
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http://www.irinnews.org/report/98615/the-long-term-forecast-for-extreme-weather
