Beslutmingstagerne skal tænke langsigtet i forhold til det globale energisystem for at undgå fremtidig overbelastning og forsyningskonflikter. Det er en af konklusionerne i det seneste World Energy Outlook fra IEA.
19. december 2014 (World Energy Council) Decision-makers need to focus on long-term signs of stress in the global energy system and should avoid being “lulled into a false sense of security” by current events, says the International Energy Agency in its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO).
Specifically, the agency warns that “the short-term picture of a well-supplied oil market should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead as reliance grows on a relatively small number of producers.”
Launching the agency’s flagship publication in London last month, Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said: “World events have served to make this WEO a hotly anticipated one. We have seen turmoil in parts of the Middle East, tensions between Russia and Ukraine, some signs of economic slowdown, lower oil prices in recent months, and even a deal between China and the United States on climate.”
Stigende energiforbrug verden over
For this first time, the WEO scenarios make projections to 2040. In the central scenario, the world’s primary energy demand is 37% higher by then, despite efficiency improvements.
A conclusion that some may find surprising is that by 2040 world energy supply is divided into four equal parts: low-carbon energy sources such as renewables and nuclear, oil, natural gas and coal.
In other words, fossil fuels will continue to supply three-quarters of the world’s energy needs – with obvious implications for carbon emissions.
In an in-depth study of nuclear power, the IEA sees installed capacity growing 60% by 2040, but most of the growth is in just four countries: China, India, Korea and Russia.
Olien i Mellemøsten
World oil supply rises to 104 Mb/d in 2040, “but hinges critically on investments in the Middle East”.
Interestingly, given recent oil price movements, the IEA sees tight oil output in the US levelling off and other non-OPEC supply falling back in the 2020s – with the Middle East becoming “the major source of supply growth”.
Demand for gas rises by half by 2040, making it the only fossil fuel still growing by then. Coal use rises by 15% but levels off in the 2020s.
The regional focus in this year’s WEO is on Sub-Saharan Africa, where two-thirds of the population still lacks access to electricity – “a severe constraint on economic and social development”.
Læs historien i World Energy Focus #6 december 2014
