Kommentar af Khalid Alsuhaibani (Verdensbanken)
Noget så enkelt som mad på bordet har ned gennem historien udløst store politiske omvæltninger – også derfor må vi nøje afveje, hvordan vi investerer etisk korrekt i landbruget i fattige lande, for snubletrådene ligger der overalt.
Al-Arabiya reported a few weeks ago that the political crisis in Ukraine and Russia is threatening the availability of food in Egypt and Jordan.
Food prices becoming hostage to political crises is certainly not a new phenomenon: food plays an important role in the stability of societies through its availability, affordability, and quality.
We learned this lesson from the 1789 French Revolution and more recently, many commentators link soaring food prices in 2010 with the events leading up to the ‘Arab Spring.’
The latter is not surprising when Arab countries import 56 per cent of their cereal (korn) consumption, and some Arab countries import 100 per cenrt of their wheat consumption.
These recent market dynamics have led many countries to revisit their food security strategies with an eye to securing food supply.
Fødevarekriser har enorme virkninger
There is a vigorous debate over the reasons pertaining to the food price increases in 2008, 2010, and 2012.
Many highlight the effects of seasonal, short and medium term factors such as weather changes and biofuel-related crop conversions as well as long term factors such as population growth, income growth, and climate change.
These price increases in food have enormous effects on people, for example, the 2008 food crisis pushed 105 million people into poverty.
In addition, the increased price volatility (udsving) triggered by financial speculation on commodities, makes planning and coping more challenging for developing countries.
Developing countries have had varying policy responses to rising food prices.
Among the responses cited by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are two that concern:
Trade-oriented policy responses (releasing food stocks, reducing tariffs and VAT (moms), controlling prices, restricting exports) and producer-oriented policy responses (that is, production support measures).
Indeed, even relatively recently many food-exporting developing countries have attempted to isolate their domestic food prices from international markets. For example, during the 2008 food crisis, 25 countries banned food exports.
Stop for eksport af fødevarer er ingen løsning
However, banning food exports is hardly an ideal solution since it can hurt the country’s reputation as a reliable trade partner, may contribute to increasing international pricesfurther, and in some instants the poor in the exporting country will be the most affected as in the case in Tanzania.
South-South cooperation is bringing a new ray of hope for global food supply. Cash-rich, food-importing developing countries are attempting to tackle the issue by addressing international trade challenges through acquiring land in food-exporting countries to secure their food supply.
For example, Saudi Arabia is counting on its new program, the “King Abdullah’s Initiative for Agricultural Investment Abroad,” where the Saudi private sector is incentivized through interest-free loans to make agricultural investments abroad.
Other countries have similar initiatives. The recent surge in FDI (foreign direct investment) into primary and secondary agriculture highlights this trend.
Læs videre på http://blogs.worldbank.org/miga/agricultural-fdi-risky-business
—————————–
OM FORFATTEREN
Khalid Alsuhaibani is a Risk Management Analyst at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), the political risk insurance and credit enhancement arm of the World Bank Group.
Previously, Khalid worked in an investment boutique in Bahrain. He also worked at the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Paris as a researcher concentrating on political analysis.
Khalid Alsuhaibani received his Bachelor of Management degree in accounting and finance from the University of British Columbia. He speaks English, French and Arabic.
