Are we heading for another food crisis? – Food is available but not always affordable
JOHANNESBURG, 2 March 2010 (IRIN): Long dry spells in parts of Africa and erratic rainfall in Asia have cast uncertain clouds over crop yields for 2010 in the worlds poorest countries.
Food prices in most developing countries are down from their 2008 crisis levels, but still higher than they were in 2007.
In the first of a four-part series on food security in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, IRIN asks, “Are we heading for another crisis?” (IRIN er et nyhedsbureau under FN-systemet, red.).
It would take “two consecutive bad years” for a repeat of the 2008 food and fuel crisis to arise, said Abdol-reza Abbassian, economist and secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Unlike the situation in 2008, global cereal stocks are at comfortable levels.
But there were “many factors at play” in food prices. – In fact, we are projecting prices to stay firm, even in the medium term (the next 10 years), although they may not exceed the highs witnessed in 2008, Abbassian commented.
It is still a matter of adequate supply to meet growing demand, and the supply of food cereals has been declining.
The gradual reduction in subsidies and support for the world’s biggest producers in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries – the US and the European Union (EU) in particular – has meant smaller surpluses.
– On the other hand, population growth and economic prosperity fuel demand – as in Asia, especially in China and India – therefore, we are moving into a situation whereby supply expansion could decelerate, while demand will continue to grow – sometimes even faster than in the past, said Abbassian.
A paper by the OECD suggested that food prices would start rising again, “(albeit not to 2008 peaks) once economies come out of the recession, as the basic structural demand and supply-side determinants are still very much present … [with] demand growing faster than supply”.
“Food prices should therefore no longer be seen as a ‘shock’ or short-term ‘crisis’, but rather as a longer-term structural issue”, the paper noted.
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