GLOBAL: Prepare for “climaggedon” – Poor monsoons linked by some experts to the El Niño in 2009 affected rice yields
JOHANNESBURG, 9 March 2010 (IRIN): Rice producing Asian countries had to contend with poor rains in 2009, and now another season of low rainfall has been forecast for some of them, which has prompted concern whether the price of the grain could go up later in 2010.
This is the second of a four-part series on food security where IRIN asks, “Are we heading for another crisis?” In this report we look at the possible impact of the current El Niño on rice prices in Asia and we find it seems a bit unclear.
In 2009 the impact of El Niño – the periodic flow of warm sea water across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean – disrupted rainfall patterns across Asia.
– In the short-term rice stocks are comfortable but it will be hard to predict the impact on prices if there is another bad season, Concepcion Calpe, Senior Commodity Specialist on rice with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
There are good stocks in the world’s largest exporter of rice, Thailand, and the second largest, Vietnam, said Calpe. Vietnam’s main rice growing area, the Mekong River Delta, is facing a serious drought.
Andrew Aaronson, chairperson of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee on rice at the US Department of Agriculture concurred: – Global rice stocks are for the most part `comfortable’ at the present time assuming normal import demand… The global rice situation is okay now, but is worth watching very closely, noted he.
But warned William Dar, director-general of the India-based International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT): – Possible dry weather in coming months could negatively affect the secondary cropping seasons, mainly rice.
El Niño can lead to higher atmospheric temperatures and have a disruptive impact on seasonal rains. Experts believe the phenomenon will linger until the middle of 2010 in some parts, affecting crop yields.
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