“Graying Revolution” Reaches Low- and Middle-income Countries
* Developing and middle-income countries must care for growing numbers of the elderly but often without enough money and experience.
* In less developed regions, life expectancy increased by 26 years from 1950-55 to 2005-10.
* Two World Bank reports address the economic impact of aging populations worldwide and offer direction on policy reforms.
WASHINGTON, 18th January, 2011: Since the 1950s, smaller family sizes and longer life expectancies have steadily expanded the ranks of the elderly in many societies – a shift some commen-tators have dubbed the “Graying Revolution”.
Once considered a rich country phenomenon because of its origins in high national incomes and better personal health, the “graying” trend has now reached developing and middle-income countries, according to new research by the World Bank.
These countries are catching up, but largely without the economic means to cope (klare) with the social and economic challenges posed by such a profound demographic shift.
– Population aging is a global issue that is affecting, or will soon affect, virtually every country around the world, at a time when family support and other traditional safety nets have become less certain, says Daniel Cotlear.
He is co-author of a recent Bank report “Some Consequences of Global Aging,” and a lead economist in the World Bank’s Human Development Network.
– What we find is that many developing countries are getting older before they become more prosperous, which is the reverse of the OECD experience, and cause for worry, he says.
Cotlear, who has another report coming out in early 2011 looking specifically at aging in Latin America, says it is important to track falling birth and death rates to gauge the economic implications of expanding older populations.
He says that both life expectancy and fertility rates have changed dramatically over the last 60 years, and further changes are expected.
Life expectancy at birth grew by 11 years between 1950-55 and 2005-10 in more developed countries, but the gains have been much greater in less developed regions (excluding the least developed countries), where life expectancy increased by 26 years, and in the least developed countries, where life expectancy increased by 19,5 years.
Further gains are anticipated in the coming decades.
Arguing Against A “Time Bomb”
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