Kassawa kan ligefrem lide klimaforandringerne og spås at kunne producere mere mad til millioner af afrikanere, vurderer Det Internationale Center for Tropelandbrug (CIAT) i Colombia.
CALI, Colombia, 27 February, 2012: A traditional root crop long neglected by modern science could be the best bet for farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa to beat climate change, according to a new study by a team of climate scientists.
The research, published in a special edition of the scientific journal Tropical Plant Biology has found that the rugged root crop cassava will brush off expected temperature rises of up to 2 degrees Celsius in the region by 2030 – and could be even more productive thanks to climate change.
Originally from South America, cassava was first introduced to Sub-Saharan Africa by Portuguese traders in the 17th Century. Now it is the second most important source of carbohydrate (kulhydrater) in the region, where it is consumed by around 500 million people every day.
Despite being able to produce its starch-rich (stivelsesrige) roots in poor soils and with little water, making it a reliable crop in difficult environments, investment in cassava research has been dwarfed by decades of research into better-known staples (grund-næringsmidler) like rice, wheat and maize.
In a class of its own
Using a combination of 24 climate prediction and crop suitability models, scientists from CIAT and the CGIAR’s Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Research Program (CCAFS) compared the expected impacts of climate change on the production of cassava and six other key staple crops in sub-Saharan Africa – potato, maize, bean, banana, millet (hirse), and sorghum (durra).
They found that by 2030, temperature rises of between 1,2 and 2 degrees Celsius, combined with changes in rainfall patterns, will leave cassava in a class of its own, outperforming the other crops overall.
In East Africa, for example, it bucks (modstår) the trend of declining suitability of all other crops in the study, with a 10 per cent increase. In West Africa cassava will hold its ground, significantly outperforming the suitability of potato (-15 per cent), bean (-20 per cent) and banana (-13 per cent).
Cassava, along with banana and maize, will see a five per cent increase in suitability in Southern Africa, with only Central Africa registering decrease in cassava suitability (–1 per cent) – significantly better than the substantial declines expected in potato and bean.
The plant grows well in high temperatures and if drought hits it “shuts down” until the rains come again, the scientists said.
“We have very few good stories where we see crops doing equal or better under climate change and finally we have found one with cassava,” report author Andy Jarvis, of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, told the BBC’s Network Africa programme.
He said this was good news for Nigeria, Africa’s biggest grower, with “36-37 mega [million] tonnes of production every year”, and the DR Congo the next largest producer.
Cassava could be now a “fallback when other crops are failing”, Mr Jarvis said: “In East Africa, maize is preferred by a lot of farmers, cassava can be a back-up plan – a plan B.”
The root is grown less in southern Africa, where there are cold temperatures during the winter month. But this could change.
Rambo of the food crops
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