JOHANNESBURG, 21 June 2010 (PlusNews): South Africa’s hiv/aids epidemic may finally be slowing, according to a new study which found a 35 per cent decline in the rate of new hiv infections between 2002 and 2008.
Using prevalence data from national hiv surveys conducted in 2002, 2005 and 2008, researchers from South Africa’s Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and Imperial College London applied a mathematical method to estimate hiv incidence (rate of new infections).
They found that 1,3 percent of South Africans in the 15-49 age group were newly infected annually between 2005 and 2008, compared to 2 per cent in the years 2002-2005. The decline was mostly due to a 60 per cent reduction in incidence among young women, aged 15-24.
This appears to correspond with significant changes in their behaviour relating to condom use and hiv testing. In 2008, 73 per cent of young women reported using a condom at last sex compared to 46 per cent in 2002, and more than half had tested for hiv compared with only 13 percent six years earlier.
– Young females are the most vulnerable [to hiv infection], so it’s good news that we have declines there, but we still have too many new infections, said lead author of the study, Thomas Rehle of the HSRC, adding that the overall incidence rate of 1,3 percent translated to between 350.000 and 400.000 new hiv infections in 2008.
The lack of significant declines in infection rates among older age groups also pointed to the need for prevention campaigns targeting a broader demographic.
– Definitely, one of the findings is that we’re doing the right thing among young people, but we have to get to the older folks, commented Rehle.
