Latinamerikas økonomi er vokset 6 procent i 2010 oplyser FNs Økonomiske Kommission for Latinamerika og Caribien, ECLAC, i sin årsberetning, der blev offentliggjort mandag.
SANTIAGO de CHILE, 13 December 2010: Following a 1,9 per cent decline in 2009, Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 6 per cent in 2010 thanks to the economic recovery posted by most countries in the region, according to an annual report launched by ECLAC Monday.
In the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010, presented by Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary of this Regional Commission of the United Nations, countercyclical measures adopted by several countries in the wake of the international financial crisis have been shown to have a positive impact on economic growth, which points to a 4,8 per cent rise in per capita GDP for this year.
The consolidation of the upturn also had a positive effect on regional employment, with the unemployment rate falling from 8,2 per cent in 2009 to around 7,6 per cent, while the quality of jobs created also improved.
Meanwhile, inflation edged up slightly from 4,7 per cent in 2009 to an estimated 6,2 per cent in 2010, mainly due to international prices for some commodities.
Although the growth of the region’s countries has been uneven, most recorded positive figures for 2010. South America will grow by 6,6 per cent, while GDP is expected to rise by 4,9 per cent in Mexico and Central America and by 0,5 per cent in English-speaking and Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries.
Paraguay will post the strongest growth (9,7 per cent), followed by Uruguay (9 per cent), Peru (8,6 per cent) and Argentina (8,4 per cent). Brazil will grow by 7,7 per cent, while Mexico and Chile will expand by 5,3 per cent.
In contrast, Haiti and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela are expected to see GDP fall by 7 and 1,6 per cent, respectively.
From the second half of 2010 onwards, many factors have generated a less optimistic scenario for the international economy, and this combines with weaker demand from public policies and the shrinking of idle productive capacity to give a lower growth forecast for the region of 4,2 per cent in 2011 (approximately a 3 per cent rise in per capita GDP).
Externally, there remains major uncertainty about the robustness of the recovery in developed economies, especially those in Europe. In addition, emerging economies have gained in strength in relative terms, especially Latin American and Caribbean countries, thus increasing the flow of capital towards the region and causing currency appreciations there.
In the short term, increased capital inflows could have a negative effect on external accounts, but would not endanger growth. In the long term, however, the effects could still be negative, as can be seen from the region’s history. High levels of world liquidity would push down real exchange rates while pushing up commodity prices, which could harm the external accounts and lead to excessive specialization in the production and export of commodities. This would make the region more vulnerable to shocks from abroad.
In its report, ECLAC points out that the measures that countries may take to regulate short-term capital inflows must be accompanied by a countercyclical strategy that covers the fiscal and financial spheres, so as to ease pressure on internal demand and prevent an excessive rise in credit.
However, the document adds that success requires increased coordination at the international level, so as to correct global imbalances.
According to Alicia Bárcena “The region’s main challenge is to rebuild its capacity to implement countercyclical actions and to create the conditions for productive development not based solely on the export of commodities”.
