The rising price — in both money and health — of extreme weather events amid rapid urbanisation, and the corresponding value of applying science and technology to reduce the risks, is underscored in six new research papers formally launched at a UN event today.
Assembled by UN University's Malaysia-based International Institute for Global Health (UNU-IIGH), the papers are published in a special issue of the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health.
And they help inform a special Forum on Advancing Science and Technology in the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, hosted in Kuala Lumpur July 19 by UNU-IIGH and the UN Development Programme.
Large productivity losses
The papers include a warning about large productivity losses due to heat stress, estimating that in South-East Asia alone "as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs," a figure that may double by 2030 as the planet continues warming.
According to author Tord Kjellstrom of the Health and Environment International Trust, New Zealand:
"Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many people is affected."
GDP losses in 43 countries
Dr. Kjellstrom's paper cites estimated GDP losses due to heat stress for 43 countries:
Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Costa Rica, Denmark, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Fiji, France, Germany, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mexico, Myanmar, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Qatar, Russia, Saint Lucia, Samoa, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Tanzania, Thailand, Tuvalu, United Kingdom, United States, Vanuatu and Vietnam.
Typical situation for South-East Asian countries
The situation in Malaysia is typical of the South-East Asian countries: As work slows or stops to avoid dangerous heat stress, the country's Gross Domestic Product will decline by an estimated 5.9% (value: US $95 billion) by 2030, more than double the estimated 2.8% GDP lost to heat stress in 2010.
According to latest estimates, the global economic cost of reduced productivity may be more than US $2 trillion by 2030. The most susceptible jobs include the lowest paid — heavy labour and low-skill agricultural and manufacturing.
In 2030, in both India and China, the GDP losses could total $450 billion, although mitigation may be made possible by a major shift in working hours, among other measures employers will need to take to reduce losses.
Already major strains on energy infrastructure
This problem is already placing major strain on, for example, electricity infrastructure, Dr. Kiellstrom notes.
The additional energy needed for a single city the size of Bangkok for each 1°C increase of average ambient temperature can be as much as 2000 MW, roughly the output of a major power plant.
"It is very important to develop and apply adaptation measures now to protect people from the disasters that current climate and slowing changing climate brings," says Dr. Kjellstrom.
"However, adaptation is only half an answer — we must also take decisive action now to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases. Failure will cause the frequency and intensity of disasters to worsen dramatically beyond 2050, and the situation at the end of this century will be especially alarming for the world's poorest people."
Heat stress is one of several direct and growing impacts on human health due to a warming planet, understanding all of which "is critical in planning for mitigation and adaptation plans," the authors say.
According to the papers:
* Disastrously heavy rains can expand insect breeding sites, drive rodents from their burrows, and contaminate freshwater resources, leading to the spread of disease and compromising safe drinking water supplies.
* Warmer temperatures often promote the spread of mosquito-borne parasitic and viral diseases by shifting the vectors' geographic range and shortening the pathogen incubation period.
* Climate change can worsen air quality by triggering fires and dust storms and promoting certain chemical reactions causing respiratory illness and other health problems.
* In extreme disasters, harm is often amplified by the destruction of medical facilities and disruption of health services
* Central and south China can anticipate the greatest number of casualties and highest economic losses from extreme weather events in the Asia Pacific region — the world's most disaster-prone region — and a more integrated, multidisciplinary approach is needed to upgrade the nation's emergency response system for natural disasters.
* From 1980 to 2012, roughly 2.1 million people worldwide died as a direct result of nearly 21,000 natural catastrophes such as floods, mudslides, extreme heat, drought, high winds or fires. The cost of those disasters exceeded $4 trillion (US) — a loss comparable to the current annual GDP of Germany.
* In Asia Pacific 1.2 billion people have been affected by 1,215 disasters since the millennium. Some 92% of human exposure to floods occurs in Asia Pacific, along with 91% of exposure to cyclones and two-thirds of all exposure to landslides. Between 1970 and 2011, two million people in the region — 75% of the world total — were killed by disasters.
* From 1993 to 2012, the Philippines experienced the highest number of extreme weather events (311), Thailand experienced the greatest financial loss (US$ 5.4 billion) and Myanmar experienced the highest death rate (13.5 deaths per 100,000 people).
* In just 40 years, from 1970 to 2010, the regional population exposed to flooding risk more than doubled from about 30 million to 64 million while those in cyclone-prone areas rose from roughly 72 to 121 million.
* Cities cover 2% of world land cover, generate 60 to 80% of greenhouse gas emissions and half of all waste, and are expanding at a rate of 1 million people per week. In a single generation — from 2000 to 2030 –urban land extents are expected to have tripled.
Rapid increase in number of people exposed
The authors underline that fast-rising numbers of people are being exposed to the impacts of climate change, with much of the increase occurring in cities in flood-prone coastal areas or on hills susceptible to mudslides or landslides.
Especially vulnerable are people living in poverty, including about one billion in slums.
Cities — concentrated sources of energy consumption, heat and pollution, covered in surfaces that absorb warmth — create local heat islands and impair air quality, both threats to health.
And rising demand for cooling contributes to warming the world. Air conditioners not only pump heat out directly, the electricity required is typically produced by burning fossil fuels, adding to atmospheric greenhouse gases.
As well, people acclimatized to air conditioning become less heat tolerant, further increasing demand for cooling.
Tremendous opportunity in urban planning
On the other hand, better urban planning presents "tremendous opportunity" to mitigate the health impacts of more extreme weather events.
Urban planners, the authors say, can help by designing cities "in ways that enhance health, sustainability, and resilience all at once," incorporating better building design, facilitating a shift to renewable energy, and fostering the protection and expansion of tree cover, wetlands and other carbon sinks, for example.
To mitigate the health impacts of longer, more severe extreme weather events, the authors stress the need to replace piecemeal reactive responses with integrated, multi-disciplinary planning approaches.
Beyond better preparation and warning systems to improve disaster response, recommended steps include enhancing drainage to reduce flood risks and strengthening health care, especially in poor areas.
In an introduction to the six paper collection (http://bit.ly/29Be3Wn), UNU-IIGH Research Fellows Jamal Hisham Hashim and José Siri write that humanity faces "substantial health risks from the degradation of the natural life support systems which are critical for human survival. It has become increasingly apparent that actions to mitigate environmental change have powerful co-benefits for health."
The six papers, published by the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health
* Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region, by Jamal Hisham Hashim and Zailina Hashim (http://bit.ly/29AXLlM)
* Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response, by José G. Siri, Barry Newell, Katrina Proust, and Anthony Capon (http://bit.ly/29N9IBA)
* Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change, by Tord Kjellstrom (http://bit.ly/29BL0Dn)
* Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Areas, by Noor Artika Hassan, Zailina Hashim, and Jamal Hisham Hashim (http://bit.ly/29EX6y4)
* Review of Climate Change and Water-Related Diseases in Cambodia and Findings From Stakeholder Knowledge Assessments, by Lachlan J. McIver, Vibol S. Chan, Kathyrn J. Bowen, Steven N. Iddings, Kol Hero and Piseth P. Raingsey (http://bit.ly/29EWWXw)
Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China, by Li Wang, Yongfeng Liao, Linsheng Yang, Hairong Li, Bixiong Ye, and Wuyi Wang (http://bit.ly/29UhBI7)
