Verdensøkonomien er langsommere om at komme på benene end hidtil antaget. Til gengæld buldrer mange afrikanske lande fortsat derudad, skriver IMF i sin seneste World Economic Outlook tirsdag.
TOKYO, October 9, 2012: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled in Tokyo ahead of the IMF-World Bank 2012 Annual Meetings, the IMF said advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.3 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent last year and 3.0 percent in 2010, with public spending cutbacks and the still-weak financial system weighing on prospects.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies was marked down compared with forecasts in July and April to 5.3 percent, against 6.2 percent last year. Leading emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil will all see slower growth. Growth in the volume of world trade is projected to slump to 3.2 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year and 12.6 percent in 2010.
“Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging market and developing economies through both trade and financial channels, adding to homegrown weaknesses,” said IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard.
IMF’s Blanchard in Tokyo: ‘Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging market and developing economies
Projections for developing countries and emerging markets
• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue growing strongly, averaging above 5 percent. Most countries in the region are participating in a strong expansion, with the exception of South Africa, which has been hampered by its strong links with Europe. Recently some food importers in the region have been hit by the sharp increase in global food prices for a few major crops.
• In developing Asia, real GDP growth will average 6.7 percent in 2012 and is forecast to accelerate to a 7¼ percent pace in the second half of 2012. The main driver will be China, where activity is expected to receive a boost from accelerated approval of public infrastructure projects. The outlook for India is unusually uncertain: for 2012, with weak growth in the first half and a continued investment slowdown, real GDP growth is projected to be close to 5 percent, but improvements in external conditions and confidence—helped by a variety of reforms announced very recently—are projected to raise real GDP growth to about 6 percent in 2013.
• In the Middle East and North Africa, activity in the oil importers will likely be held back by continued uncertainty associated with political and economic transition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring and weak terms of trade—real GDP growth is likely to slow to about 1¼ percent in 2012 and rebound moderately in 2013. Due largely to the recovery in Libya, the pace of overall growth among oil exporters will rise sharply in 2012, to above 6½ percent, and then return to about 3¾ percent in 2013.
• In Latin America, real GDP growth is projected to be about 3¼ percent for the second half of 2012. It is then expected to accelerate to 4¾ percent in the course of the second half of 2013. The projected acceleration is strong for Brazil because of targeted fiscal measures aimed at boosting demand in the near term and monetary policy easing, including policy rate cuts equivalent to 500 basis points since August 2011. The pace of activity elsewhere is not forecast to pick up appreciably.
• In the central and eastern European economies, improving financial conditions in the crisis-hit economies, somewhat stronger demand from the euro area, and the end of a boom-bust cycle in Turkey are expected to raise growth back to 4 percent later in 2013. The Commonwealth of Independent States will grow at 4.0 percent this year, with Russia posting growth of around 3.7 percent.
Læs mere på IMFs hjemmeside http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/RES100812A.htm
