Kommentar af John Talberth
Ny rapport viser ikke kun, at landene i Mekong-flodens bækken (afvandingsområde) er sårbare for klimaforandringer fra et miljøperspektiv. Den blotlægger også risikoen for store økonomiske konsekvenser, og at myndighederne må øge folks mulighed for at omstille sig.
The Lower Mekong River Basin (LMB) spans Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, and supports 60 million people. The region is also widely recognized as highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
As the world continues to warm, what will be the economic toll of climate change impacts in the Mekong region? New research shows that climate change could damage 18 billion US dollar worth of infrastructure and decrease economic productivity by 16 billion annually by 2050.
In a new report completed for USAID’s Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change project (MARCC), my colleagues and I used a methodology known as values at risk (VAR).
The aim is to assess the value of existing urban and rural infrastructure vulnerable to increased flooding and sea level rise, as well as the annual value of economic activity that will be exposed to increased heat, drought, storms and shifts in vegetation.
The results of our preliminary analysis provide a sobering assessment of what’s at stake in the LMB. In particular, we found that:
The annual value of worker productivity, infrastructure services, agricultural output, hydroelectric power and ecosystem services at risk from climate change in the LMB is at least 16 billion dollar per year (ca. 96 milliarder DKR).
Arbejdenes helbred i risiko
Worker productivity represents the largest share of annual economic values at risk (52 percent).
This is because so much of the LMB’s economy depends on outdoor workers engaged in construction, agriculture, fisheries and collection of non-timber forest products.
These workers are vulnerable to a range of climate risks (e.g. changing flood, drought, and storm patterns), but our research points especially toward the risk of greater incidence and severity of heat-induced health disorders.
Rash, fatigue, cramps, exhaustion and heat stroke could take a significant toll on these workers’ lives and livelihoods if nothing is done to protect them.
The VAR approach does not generate precise estimates of how climate change costs will unfold over time, or where such costs are likely to manifest at a fine spatial scale. However, it does provide useful information to guide overarching policy directions that could improve climate resilience in the sectors likely to experience a high economic toll.
Læs hele artiklen her: http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/02/numbers-economic-impacts-climate-change-lower-mekong-basin-0
John Talberth er tilknyttet World Resources Institute i Washington D.C.
