Asien: Regionen forstsætter som global vækstmotor

Laurits Holdt

Philippines, 24 March (Asien Development Bank): ADB’s flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2015 (ADO), released today, forecasts developing Asia will achieve gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.3% in both 2015 and 2016. The region also grew 6.3% in 2014.

“Developing Asia is making a strong contribution to global economic growth,”

“Falling commodity prices are creating space for policy makers across the region to cut costly fuel subsidies or initiate other structural reforms. This is a key opportunity to build frameworks that will support more inclusive and sustainable growth in the longer term.”

Chief Economist Shang-Jin Wei, ADB.

With improving external demand for the region’s outputs, an expected pickup in India and in most members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), could help balance gradual deceleration in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the region’s largest economy.

Video: Chief Economist Shang-Jin Wei, ADB commenting on the rapport.

Indien overhaler Kina som vækstlokomotiv

India is forecast to overtake the PRC in terms of growth as the initial phase of government efforts to remove structural bottlenecks is lifting investor confidence. With the support of stronger external demand, India is set to expand by 7.8% in FY2015 (ending 31 March 2016), a sharp rise from 7.4% growth in FY2014. This momentum is expected to build to 8.2% growth in FY2016, aided by expected easing of monetary policy and a pickup in capital expenditure.

Growth will be stable in Taipei,China, but accelerate in Hong Kong, China, and Republic of Korea, reflecting rising domestic demand and the improving global economy.

Growth in South Asia accelerated to 6.9% in 2014 and is projected to trend higher to 7.2% in 2015 and 7.6% in 2016, reflecting the strong performance anticipated in India.

Asiatiske lande med muligheder og udfordringer

Across the subregions, economic growth in East Asia will slow to 6.5% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016 reflecting the moderation in the PRC. The subregion grew 6.6% in 2014. Mongolia will see growth decelerate sharply in 2015 as foreign direct investment dries up and fiscal and monetary policies are tightened.

Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are following through with wide-ranging economic reforms that include efforts to overcome power shortages, though political challenges may limit progress in 2015. Sri Lanka’s economy is expected to moderate in 2015 as investors await clarity on the new administration’s plans for governance reform and economic policy.

Vækstprognose for Sydøstasien

Southeast Asia is poised for a growth rebound in 2015 after subregional growth fell to 4.4% in 2014. Aggregate growth is seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2015 and 5.3% in 2016 as recovery in Indonesia and Thailand leads the way, and with most of the subregion expected to benefit from rising exports and lower inflation.


Risks to the outlook include possible missteps in the PRC as it adjusts to its new normal, less decisive action on reforms in India than anticipated, potential spillover effects on the global economy of the Greek debt crisis and the deepening recession in the Russian Federation. The impending rise in US interest rates may reverse capital flows to the region, requiring monetary responses to maintain stability. The benefits flowing from the low price of oil could evaporate if geopolitical tensions push it sharply higher.

Global vækst med store udfordringer

Growth in the United States (US), where recovery seems to have turned a corner, is leading major industrial economies. While signs are mixed in the euro area and Japan, soft oil prices and accommodative monetary policy will support growth. As a group, these economies are forecast to expand by 2.2% in 2015, up 0.6 percentage points from 2014, and 2.4% in 2016.

Weak oil prices and recession in the Russian Federation pushed subregional growth in Central Asia down 1.5 percentage points to 5.1% in 2014. In 2015 growth will slacken in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as lower petroleum exports constrain domestic spending. The weak economy in the Russian Federation will curb export and remittance flows, slowing growth in Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. Average growth in the subregion is forecast at 3.5% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016.