Det er i hvert fald konklusionen i ny amerikansk rapport om Joseph Konys “Herrens Modstandshær”, der kun har få hundrede mand tilbage – Kony selv jagtes af et mægtigt kobbel, som vil bringe ham for en folkeretsdomstol.
KAMPALA, 1 August 2013 (IRIN): Joseph Kony is losing his grip on the fighters of his rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), with many wanting to defect (desertere), according to a new report by The Resolve LRA Crisis Initiative, an US-based advocacy group.
According to the report, “Loosening Kony’s Grip: Effective Defection Strategies for Today’s LRA”, many LRA combatants in the Central African Republic (CAR) and DR Congo are increasingly disillusioned by the leadership’s failure to maintain contact with the increasingly fragmented group and by the difficulty of life in remote rainforests far from home.
This is made worse by pressure from Ugandan military forces and US military advisers operating in the region. Some are also disenchanted with the group’s recent shift towards forms of banditry, including harvesting elephant ivory.
“The Lord’s Resistance Army is likely weaker than it has been in at least 20 years… and morale among the Ugandan combatants that comprise the core of its force is at a new low,” the authors noted.
Weakening the LRA
The report says the LRA currently has an estimated 250 combatants – including 200 Ugandans and 50 low-ranking fighters from CAR, DR Congo and South Sudan – and another 250 dependents.
A new campaign dubbed “Come Home” is a collaboration between the Ugandan and US militaries that uses speakers mounted on helicopters circling LRA-occupied areas as well as leaflets, radio broadcasts and Safe Reporting Sites to encourage defection from the LRA.
The authors suggest that this campaign would yield better results if it were conducted in more areas where the group operates.
According to the report, at least 31 Ugandan LRA combatants defected in 2012 and through the first six months of 2013.
Kony and his fighters are thought to operate in the border regions of CAR, DR Congo, Sudan and South Sudan; Uganda has some 2.500 soldiers deployed around these areas under the auspices of the African Union. In late 2011, the US deployed 100 special forces to the region as military advisers to the effort.
“The apparent weakening of the LRA’s internal cohesion (sammenhængskraft), their long tradition of holding civilian populations hostage to deter attacks, and the historic failure of military operations to achieve a decisive victory [suggest] that the most timely and cost-effective approach to dismantling the LRA is to encourage increased defections,” the authors said, adding:
“The large majority of people in the LRA were forcibly conscripted, and most, including many Ugandans, want to defect.”
No pardon for Kony
Ugandan officials continue to encourage defection from the LRA, promising defectors amnesty from prosecution; an Amnesty Act that lapsed in 2012 was reinstated in 2013. The Amnesty Act does not extend to top LRA commanders.
“The amnesty law is still there for those who are not indicted by ICC (International Criminal Court) – Kony and three of his most senior commanders have been indicted on several charges, including crimes against humanity and war crimes]. We encourage them to abandon the rebellion and come out. They are welcome back home,” Lt Col Paddy Ankunda, Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) spokesperson, told IRIN, noting:
“If they have no fighters, they have no future.”
He added, “The hard-core ones like Kony and his top leadership cannot surrender. We have an AU [African Union] force there. We shall resume hunting them once AU gets authorization from the new CAR authorities.”
The hunt for Kony was suspended following a coup in CAR by the Séléka rebel group, which overran the capital, Bangui, on 24 March, putting President François Bozizé to flight and naming Michel Djotodjia as the new head of state.
“There is need to continue to encourage and persuade the LRA members to defect. Let them abandon the rebellion and come back home. They are victims of circumstances,” retired bishop Baker Ochola, a member of Acholi Religious Peace Initiative (ALPI), told IRIN.
“Let them leave LRA to Kony and his people who started it… Kony will remain alone and will not have support”, stated he.
Ochola warned that while the LRA may be weaker, “they are still at large. They still pose a challenge and are dangerous”.
Beyond defection
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http://www.irinnews.org/report/98509/lra-weaker-than-it-has-been-in-at-least-20-years
