Analyse af Henrik Angerbrandt, Nordiska Afrikainstitutet
Det forestående valg i Nigeria er blevet udsat i seks uger på grund af faren for at Boko Haram vil udføre angreb. Men udsættelsen skyldes nok mere et ønske fra regeringspartiet om at bringe sig i en bedre position før valget, mener en ekspert.
Since 2009, Boko Haram attacks and military counterattacks have created widespread insecurity in Nigeria, killing more than 13 000 people.
Since mid-summer, Nigeria has lost a territory by the size of Belgium to the insurgents. The military has proven unable to both prevent and withstand attacks.
Soldiers unwilling to meet better equipped insurgents have been sentenced to death in a court martial.
Last week, the military realised they need six weeks to conclude “a major military operation” against the insurgency in the northeast.
The military thereby gave the Nigerian electoral commission, INEC, no choice but to postpone the presidential and national assembly elections on 14 February and the governorship and state assembly elections two weeks later.
In a letter (http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/176440-inec-postpones-2015-general-elections.html)to the INEC chairman, the security agents declared that the military could not provide security during the elections.
Reasons for why this offensive against an insurgency that has lasted for six years coincides with the date of the presidential election was to be held were however not disclosed.
There are indications that the ruling party, PDP, is behind the decision. Only last week, a recording (http://saharareporters.com/2015/02/05/how-obanikoro-fayose-chris-uba-and-brig-general-momoh-rigged-ekiti-governorship-election)that is said to reveal the military’s involvement in manipulating the Ekiti State elections last summer was made public.
This included arresting opposition members as well as preventing voters to access the polls.
In the run up to the presidential election it may also be recalled how the military denied the speaker of the House of Representatives access to the National Assembly after defecting to the opposition and an APC office was raided by security agents in November.
Less than three weeks ago, the national security advisor to the president called for the elections to be postponed. However, this was not because the security agents were unprepared but because of slow distribution of voters’ cards.
INEC, the responsible authority, replied there was no reason for postponement. Hence, it looks like a last resort has been to return to the security argument, first articulated in September by the PDP Senate President (http://n-katalyst.com/2014/09/22/elections-2015-of-cats-and-kites/).
Læs hele indlægget på Mats Utas’ blog
Begynd ved fjerde afsnit ”There are different theories…”
Henrik Angerbrandt is PhD Candidate in Political Science and researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute in Uppsala, Sweden. His research concerns ethno-religious conflict in northern Nigeria.
