FN advarer om, at opskruede alarm-meldinger i sig selv kan drive priserne på fødevarer i vejret og få spekulanterne på benene – under alle omstændigheder er krisen permanent for den milliard, som lider af sult og underernæring.
JOHANNESBURG, 16 August 2012 (IRIN): Lower output forecasts for US maize and soybeans and wheat from Russia in 2012-13 have been jumped on by the international media as evidence that a food crisis is almost certainly on the way.
But a range of economists and food experts are also warning against overreaction that could create panic, causing governments to apply export controls that would restrict supplies of grains. This would affect markets and push prices still higher, they say.
“Increasingly pessimistic outlooks for the US corn and Russian wheat crops this year have certainly driven prices up for both commodities, with maize reaching a record high last week following the USDA [US Department of Agriculture] announcement that the maize crop was going to be even smaller than expected,” said Christopher Barrett, a professor of applied economics at Cornell University in the US.
The US, the world’s largest producer of maize, is expected to produce its smallest crop since 2006-07, the USDA said in its August forecast.
Prices for yellow maize, used mainly as feed for livestock (dyrefoder), are already above 300 US dollar per tonne, and are now projected to exceed 350 per tonne in the coming months and into 2013, the USDA said.
Maize prices climbed by 23 percent in July alone, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
Heat and dryness persisted during July in the spring wheat growing areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, which are among the world’s largest producers and exporters, affecting the crop.
“The time of cheap food has long gone”
With maize supplies down and prices up, the USDA anticipates that demand for wheat will grow as a number of countries opt to replace maize with wheat to feed animals.
In this scenario, the farm price (the value of the grain when it leaves the farm) of wheat is expected to go up to around 330 dollar per tonne, revised from around 271 – the highest price projected by the USDA in July. During the food price crisis in 2007-08, wheat hit more than 400 dollar per tonne.
Aid agencies like Oxfam point out that “the time of cheap food has long gone”, and many people are already living in crisis.
The rising prices are “not some gentle monthly wake-up call – it is the same global alarm that has been screaming at us since 2008” and has already sent so many into hunger, said Oxfam spokesperson Colin Roche, adding:
“Without action, millions more people are in danger of joining the billion who are already hungry”.
In an update on the food situation, IRIN attempts to assess the extent of the crisis.
How deep in crisis?
Læs videre på
http://www.irinnews.org/Report/96121/FOOD-How-bad-is-the-crisis
