JUBA, 8 February 2011 (IRIN): The release of referendum (folkeafstemning) results for Southern Sudan’s historic independence showing that 98,83 percent voted for secession (løsrivelse) means formal independence is scheduled for 9 July 2011, but key challenges still remain to be negotiated.
These issues, observers say, must now be hammered out by the two ruling parties – the north’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the south’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has asked the international community “to assist all Sudanese towards greater stability and development”, while US President Barack Obama welcomed the “successful and inspiring referendum” but urged north and south to work quickly on post-referendum arrangements.
The often rocky relationship between the two parties has been eased by the swift acceptance of the results by Sudans President Omar al-Bashir.
Nevertheless, observers note that progress on negotiations has so far has been slow, with the south accusing the north of dragging its heels. Some fear the north will now seek to extract (kræve) a high price from the south for its separation.
On top of it, decades of war and poverty have kept Southern Sudan in a decrepit state (ynkelig tilstand), and its 8,7 million people live in one of the least developed regions in the world.
The UN says a 15-year-old girl here has a higher chance of dying in childbirth than finishing school. An estimated 85 percent of the population is illiterate (analfabeter).
Adding to the challenges, the prices of some everyday goods like sugar, soap and cooking oil have increased by more than 50 percent in recent weeks.
A new currency must be established. Diplomatic missions need to be opened. And a country name must be chosen.
Below are some key issues that have to be negotiated between now and July:
ABYEI:
The contested border region was due to hold a separate referendum at the same time as the south, when its residents would decide whether to become part of the north or south.
But progress on that vote remains in deadlock, with the largely northern-supported Misseriya community – who travel through the region annually to graze their cattle – demanding a right to vote.
The largely southern-supported Dinka Ngok people reject that demand, and southerners say only permanent residents should be allowed to vote.
The areas future is expected to be wrapped into the huge negotiations ahead, with the south demanding it be ceded (afstået) directly to join the new nation.
OIL AND WATER:
A new deal must be agreed to renegotiate the current equal sharing of oil pumped in the south. The economies on both sides depend hugely on oil – forming 98 percent of the southern government budget.
Oil reserves lie mainly in the south but all pipelines run north. For once, observers hope oil can provide a factor for peace, as for either to benefit, the future two states will be forced to cooperate post-secession (efter de er gået hver til sit).
In addition, negotiations will have to be agreed on the future sharing of Nile river water, an issue that neighbouring Egypt will be watching keenly, reluctant to see its share of the river cut.
DEBT (gæld):
Sudan’s crippling debt, estimated at 38 billion US dollar, remains a major concern. It is an emotional issue: the southerners say Khartoum spent the cash on arms during the 1983-2005 civil war.
The north wants to obtain international debt forgiveness to allow fresh loans, but that would still take many years. Persuading the south to take on some of that will be hard, but the north hopes that the south could then expect to have it written off more easily.
CITIZENSHIP (statsborgerskab):
Concern remains for the many Sudanese living in the border areas, as well as southerners and northerners based in the ‘other’ side of Sudan. Hundreds of thousands of southerners remain in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, but the north has so far appeared reluctant to (tilbageholdende overfor) accept any dual nationality status. The south would reportedly like people to be able to choose.
BORDERS (grænser):
Sudan’s giant north-south border remains un-demarcated (ikke markeret), with progress slow on fixing the boundaries. Negotiations are based on colonial era maps as the border stood at Sudan’s independence in 1956, but with the frontier crossing oil and mineral rich areas, the issue is contentious (omstridt).
COMMON PROBLEMS:
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